It’s the last game of a four game series between division rivals, Phillies and Braves.
All three games this week have been high scoring affairs, full of hits, home runs, and all around offense. An average of 14.3 runs/game were scored in the three matchups.
The Braves are currently holding onto a 2-1 series lead, with the NL East all locked up. They now look to secure the best record in the MLB, and home field throughout the playoffs.
The Phillies, on the other hand, are battling it out with five other teams for the two National League Wild Card spots; six teams if you still believe the Padres have a chance.
Two teams, both in very different positions, both with a single goal in mind: WIN.
Let’s get into our best bets for the divisional matchup.
Braves vs. Phillies Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Citizens Bank Park
- Date:September 13, 2023
- Time: 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup
- Atlanta Braves: Spencer Strider (10-3, 3.83 ERA)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (2-3 3.26 ERA)
Betting Odds
Courtesy of Bovada
Runline
- Braves -1.5 (-105)
- Phillies +1.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Braves (-168)
- Phillies (+140)
Total
- Over 9 (-115)
- Under 9 (-105)
Braves vs. Phillies Breakdown & Best Bets
The Braves and Phillies have met 9 times this season, with the Braves taking six of those meetings. Six of the nine games have gone over the posted total of ‘9’, including three straight.
It’s always hard to expect runs when Spencer Strider’s on the mound, even more so if your Philly. Strider, in six career starts vs. Philly: 6-0, 1.62 ERA with 52 Ks, and he’s given up < 2 runs in 5 of those 6 matchups.
Not to mention, Strider has a career K rate of 34% against the Phillies top 3 batters, combined. (Turner/Schwarber/Harper)
So why’s this total sitting at 9? Probably means we see Philly put up some runs, despite the tough matchup.
Braves vs. Phillies Best Bets
T. Turner o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs (+110) via Bovada
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We’re only getting this line because of the pitching matchup, Strider is tough.
Trea Turner is 0/9 in his career vs. Strider, never once has even reached base. He’s struck out twice in his nine ABs (both last season), which is far fewer than a majority of his teammates.
He’s making contact with the ball and when you’re going up against Strider, not much else you can hope for.
Trea is 7/14 vs. the Braves in this series, with (4) singles, (1) double, and (2) HRs.
His prior two games against Strider this year, came in May and June, when he was still really struggling.
Since then he’s batting 0.333 in the month of August, and 0.419 in September; a combined 16 HRs in Aug/Sept, six more than he had in the previous four months combined. It’s September 13th.
I know it’s tough to bet someone that’s a career 0/9 in any matchup, but with the total set at 9, there should be plenty of opportunity for Trea to cash us out.
If you really don’t like it, you can take his 1+ Hit @ (-170)
T. Turner o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs (+110) via Bovada
7 HRs in his L10 games, 0.930 SLG in that same span. Worth a sprinke
Trea Turner HR (+450)
Austin Riley o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs (-140) via Bovada
It’s not often we eat this much juice, but I guess the juice man’s calling again.
These teams have combined for an average of 14.3 runs/game in their 9 matchups this year, so to stay in that same vein, we’re targeting offense.
Amid the play of Acuna and Olson, Riley’s gotten a little over looked this year. He’s currently batting 0.274 with 34 HRs, 85 RBI, and 103 runs scored.
He’s batting 0.278 in his L5, 0.282 vs LHP, and 0.289 vs the Phillies this year (4 HRs). He’s also cleared this line in 4 of 5 road games vs Philly this year.
His position in the lineup, right after Acuna/Albies but right before Olson/Ozuna also puts him in a great spot for hits/runs/RBIs.
Austin Riley o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs (-140) via Bovada
His odds to hit a nuke are kinda low, worth sprinkling.
Austin Riley HR (+370)
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Bases (+100)
Not much of a writeup, this line is probably a trap but I just can’t pass it up.
Strider on the mound so its either gonna be a wash, or he’ll hit a nuke; no in between.
Schwarber is a career 0.214 vs. Strider, recording just 3 hits on 14 ABs. He’s been terrible making contact this year but still somehow has 43 HRs and could tie/pass his career high before the season ends.
BetAlytics has Schwarby projected for 1.71 bases today, and have his HR odds ‘projected’ @ (+234) rather than the (+300) it currently sits at. Just need one hit, that’s it.
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Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Bases (+100) via Bovada
0.199 batting average, but 43 HRs. Odds to get a hit sit @ even money, but odds to hit a nuke are just (+300). If this dude makes contact, he’s always got a shot at going yard, sprinkle the home run.
Kyle Schwarber HR (+300)
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