Braves vs. Phillies: The Phillies have a way of making nights at Citizens Bank Park feel like an event, and last night was no exception. A 19-4 thrashing of the Braves turned into a historic performance, led by Kyle Schwarber and his four home runs. Philadelphia’s offense reminded everyone why they are one of the most feared lineups in baseball, and the timing could not be better as the playoff race continues to heat up. Energy in Philly is feeling like October already!
Still, one game does not define a series, and tonight presents another opportunity. The Braves will try to regroup, but the Phillies’ offense has already proven it can overwhelm even established arms. The matchup on the mound adds another layer of intrigue, and once again, the focus is on Philadelphia’s ability to deliver early damage.
Let us get into the play for this matchup!
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Braves vs. Phillies Best Bets – August 29
Can Bryce Harper have a Kyle Schwarber esque evening?
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After last night’s wild 19-run explosion, the Phillies dismantled the Braves 19-4 in an electrifying victory. Kyle Schwarber stole the spotlight by launching four home runs and driving in nine runs. Tonight, Philadelphia will try to carry that momentum into game two of this four-game set.
Yes, we are backing their first five team total again, but this time it sits at 2.5 and is priced at $1.25. No, we are not expecting Schwarber to repeat such a monumental outing, but it certainly would not hurt if he did. This offense at home is beyond lethal, and they still have plenty to prove after being swept by the Mets in Queens last week.
The Braves turn to Bryce Elder as their starter this evening. He faced this Philadelphia lineup on June 27th in Atlanta, where he was tagged for nine earned runs on eight hits in just two innings pitched. IN ATLANTA.
Why the emphasis? Because the Phillies simply do not score consistently on the road, and yet they still put up ten runs with Elder on the mound that night. If this game were in Atlanta, I likely would not touch it, but at Citizens Bank Park, the angle is even stronger.
The Phillies rank as the fourth-highest scoring team in Major League Baseball, averaging 3.11 runs in the first five innings. Meanwhile, Atlanta allows the seventh-most first five runs, giving up 2.91 on average.
Elder on the road has been nothing short of disastrous. He is giving up nearly six hits and 3.5 runs per outing, with opposing hitters batting .258 against him. His ERA sits at 5.25, paired with a 45.9% hard-hit rate. Today, the starter finds himself with a poorly rated average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact and strikeout percentage, per Batters-Box’s current season ratings. So far this season the right hander is allowing nearly 40% hard contact to opposing hitters.
In addition to those troubles, over his last seven road outings, Elder has posted a 9.84 ERA, 6.44 xERA, and 7.11 xFIP. During that stretch, hitters have logged a .323 xBA, .557 xSLG, and .403 xwOBA against him, while producing 42% hard contact and a 10.7% barrel rate.
Philadelphia’s lineup today grades out extremely well. According to Batters-Box, they carry the fourth-highest rated offense on the slate, with four hitters rated elite, two rated great, one above the league strikeout rate, and six above the league ground ball rate.
The home splits are even more impressive. Over the last four weeks in Philadelphia, the Phillies rank first in wOBA, OPS, and ISO. They are also second in wRC+ and fourth in hard-hit rate. This has been a true powerhouse at home. Across their last 60 plate appearances at Citizens Bank Park, six hitters own a batting average above .276, six carry a wOBA above .357, and six have an OPS above .827. On top of that, eight hitters sport a hard-hit rate above 36.7%.
Despite the fireworks last night, this still sets up as a prime spot to back Philadelphia. The biggest reason is simple: they are still at home. Factor in Elder’s road woes and his prior struggles against this lineup, and the Phillies are in position for another night of heavy damage. Ideally, Elder remains in the game long enough to replicate a line similar to Cal Quantrill’s beating last night. Trust Philadelphia at home. Pay the juice. It is worth the squeeze.
Best Bet: Phillies First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-125) odds via BetOnline
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