Braves vs. Mets: First Five Team Totals | August 13, 2025

What a matchup. Once again, we get to fade your step-dad’s childhood hero, Carlos Carrasco, against a Mets team that hit so many home runs last night they ran out of fireworks. Will the Mets be too gassed after last night? Some may argue yes, but not me. I will continue to fade Cookie Carrasco regardless of the night before.

Grandpa Carrasco

In Carrasco’s last five road games, he owns a 7.64 ERA, 5.74 xERA, and 3.06 HR/9. Opposing hitters have posted a .311 xBA, .563 xSLG, and .383 xwOBA. The Braves’ senior starter carries the worst current season rating on Batters-Box, with poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage.

Today’s Mets lineup features five elite-rated hitters, none rated poor, with three above both the league strikeout rate and the ground ball rate. They have been far better at scoring early in Queens, averaging 2.77 runs in the first five innings.

Six of the seven top-rated Mets bats will bat from the right side this evening, and right-handed hitters have been crushing Carrasco. Over his last 60 faced, they own a .344 xBA, .705 xSLG, and .329 xwOBA. He has a 5.93 ERA against right-handed bats and is allowing over 55% hard contact.

The price on this prop is juicy Lucy, but with a starter giving up 5.5 hits and 3.0 runs per game, it is hard to pass. If you can alt this to 3.5 for plus money, take it. I will take the number over the price in this one.