Braves vs. Marlins: There is nothing quite like a Tuesday night in Major League Baseball. The slate is loaded, every single team is in action, and the energy feels just a little different under the lights. Monday gave us a solid start to the week, but Tuesday is where things really open up. It is my favorite day to dig in, scan the matchups, and lock into the one spot that stands out above the rest.
Tonight that spot comes from down in Miami, where the Marlins and Braves square off in game two of their series. One struggling former Cy Young winner, one superstar hitter with a dream matchup, and one prop that feels too good to pass up.
Let’s get into it!
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Braves vs. Marlins Best Bets – August 26
Can Ronald Acuna Jr. get after Sandy Alcantara once again?
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After a profitable Monday night, we look ahead to the always beautiful, juicy, and delectable Tuesday slate. My favorite day of the week. Every team is in action, every game is played at night, and I can sit at my desk fully locked in without sweating out some random day game that I will most likely lose. I am not the biggest day baseball fan, unless it is the weekend.
This evening we head down to the 305, where the Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves for game two of this three-game series. The Marlins took down the Braves 2-1 last night, with Otto Lopez and Maximo Acosta being the only two players to score. In a game that combined for only seven total hits, it felt like one of those snoozers where everyone looks like a dad catching Z’s while watching the Masters on a Saturday afternoon.
Sandy’s Struggles
Game two should feature much more firepower, as Sandy Alcantara takes the bump for the Fighting Fish. The former Cy Young winner has not resembled his old dominant self this season, and I fully expect more than seven total hits tonight. Through 25 starts, Alcantara owns a 6.04 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. On Batters-Box, his profile looks rough, grading poorly in matchup ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. He is allowing almost 40% hard contact to opposing hitters this year.
He has been getting lit up by right-handed hitters all season, and that is exactly where we will attack the former Cy Young winner. Tonight the play is Ronald Acuna Jr.’s total bases prop over 1.5, priced at -110. A pretty standard number for the Braves star.
On the season, right-handed bats are hitting .285 with a .441 SLG and .769 OPS against Alcantara. Over his last 60 right-handed batters faced, the numbers are even more diabolical: .434 xBA, .880 xSLG, .374 xwOBA, nearly 60% hard contact, and almost a 10% barrel rate. They have been absolutely feasting.
To make matters worse for Alcantara, only two of his pitches grade above league average this season, and those account for just 39% of his arsenal. That means 61% of his offerings are below average. The good news for us is that Acuna has been punishing every single pitch type this season. Against sinkers and sliders specifically, the Braves stud owns a batting average of .271 or greater, OPS of .935 or greater, and wRC+ of 166 or greater.
Acuna Jr. vs. Alcantara
Acuna also enters tonight with the highest matchup rating in the game, per Batters-Box. When he has an elite rating, the trends are strong. He records a hit 76% of the time, two or more hits 48% of the time, and clears this prop 52% of the time. That is over a 25-game road elite rating sample. While he has been slightly better at home, his road numbers are still impressive: .287 BA, just under .400 OBP, .522 SLG, and .919 OPS.
Despite having only two hits in his last 11 at-bats, this feels like the perfect spot for Acuna to bounce back and have an explosive evening at the dish. He has enjoyed plenty of success against Alcantara in the past, going 12-for-35 with seven extra-base hits. I fully expect that success to continue tonight.
All signs point to Acuna being in a prime position to break out tonight. Alcantara’s struggles against right-handed hitters, paired with his below-average arsenal, create a perfect matchup for the Braves superstar. Acuna’s elite Batters-Box rating and strong historical numbers against Alcantara only add to the confidence behind this play. With bounce-back written all over it, I expect Acuna to deliver at the plate and give us another profitable evening.
Best Bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) odds via BetOnline
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