Braves vs. Cubs: Labor Day baseball always delivers, and today’s slate is no different. After a thrilling weekend across the league, we shift our attention to an afternoon showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves. Chicago comes home looking to bounce back after a tough 6-5 loss in Denver, while Atlanta sends a struggling arm to the mound. The matchup presents an opportunity for the Cubs offense, which has quietly remained one of the stronger lineups in baseball despite recent inconsistencies. With six elite rated bats in today’s order, the stage is set for fireworks early. Let us dive in.
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Braves vs. Cubs Best Bets – September 1
Can the Cubs offense take it to Spencer Stride this afternoon?
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We continue on with this marvelous Labor Day MLB slate. Later in the afternoon, the Cubs host the Braves after falling to the Rockies 6-5 in Denver on Sunday. Chicago looks to bounce back and find some rhythm against a struggling Braves arm.
In this spot I love the Cubs first five team total over 1.5, priced at $1.35. This is just fantastic value. The Cubs have cooled off in the second half, but asking for two runs from an offense that has averaged slightly above three per first five innings at home this season is not asking for much in my opinion. As I always say, this number is a gift. Especially with an offense due for an explosive outing.
The Gift
“If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average over two runs in the first five innings to begin with, and you are getting a prop on an offense you trust against a pitcher who is probably not good enough to deserve that amount of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift.” – Me
Chicago enters today’s slate with the third-highest rated offense on the day, per Batters-Box’s current season ratings. They have six elite rated hitters. Yes, SIX. Those six elite bats and the Cubs lineup get to face Braves starter Spencer Strider. The Atlanta veteran has the third-worst pitcher rating on the slate. His average hitter matchup metrics are poor across wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. He is allowing 40% hard contact to opposing hitters this season.
Strider’s Struggles
Strider has struggled mightily on the road in 2024. In nine road outings, he owns a 5.10 ERA while allowing 4.4 hits and 3.11 runs per game. His August was brutal, posting a 10.13 ERA with 21 runs allowed across four starts. The struggles extend further back, with his last five road starts producing a 5.53 ERA, 4.75 xERA, and 4.35 xFIP. Opposing hitters during that span own a .263 xBA, .447 xSLG, and .352 xwOBA.
Today, four of Chicago’s six elite rated hitters will bat from the left side. Left-handed bats have given Strider significant problems this season. In his last five games, lefties own a .315 xBA, .500 xSLG, and .384 xwOBA against him.
Despite Chicago’s offensive struggles over the past two months, this is still a team that ranks seventh in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS. They are fifth in ISO and fourth in strikeout percentage. If they can be half the offense they were in the first half, they can carve out two early runs against Strider. In their last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, six hitters are batting above .259, five have a slugging percentage above .417, and five hold an OPS above .884. Seven hitters also own a hard-hit rate above 39%. This offense should be more than capable against a pitcher who has struggled all season long.
All things considered, this spot lines up perfectly for the Cubs to do damage early. You have one of the most talented lineups in baseball, armed with six elite rated bats, facing a pitcher who has been struggling for months and cannot seem to figure it out on the road. The numbers point in one direction, and that is Chicago pushing across at least two runs in the first five innings. When the books hang a 1.5 on a lineup like this against a vulnerable arm, you take it every time. It is a gift, plain and simple.
Best Bet: Cubs First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-135) odds via BetOnline
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