Braves vs. Reds: Back at it with a juicy matchup in Cincinnati. Elly De La Cruz steps into a dream spot against a washed-up veteran arm. The numbers, the splits, and the setting all scream breakout night at the plate.
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Braves vs. Reds Best Bets – July 31
Will we get some Elly De La Cruz magic against Cookie Carrasco?
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Jumping right into it, we are all over Reds star, Elly De La Cruz this evening as he takes on your father’s childhood favorite pitcher, Carlos Carrasco. The 38-year-old has not pitched since May, when he was with the New York Yankees.
Carrasco vs. De La Cruz
The geriatric right-hander has a 9.26 ERA, 7.21 xERA, and 3.86 HR/9 over his last 11.2 innings pitched, per Handigraphs. Opposing hitters have posted a .339 xBA, .617 xSLG, and .422 xwOBA during that span. In four road outings, he is allowing five hits and 3.25 runs per start. Only one pitch in his arsenal grades above league average—his changeup, which he throws just 19% of the time. That means 81% of his pitch mix is below league average. De La Cruz, against changeups this season, owns a .272 xBA, .419 xSLG, and .327 xwOBA.
The Reds star loves hitting right-handed pitchers and thrives at home. At Great American Ballpark this season, he is hitting .319 with a .957 OPS and a 162 wRC+. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he has a .357 batting average, .936 OPS, and .408 wOBA.
With how well De La Cruz matches up against Cookie Carrasco’s pitch mix, I think he is 100% a go this evening. Fun fact: the Reds shortstop has not hit a home run since June 23. Zero home runs in July. I took him to hit one today at 3/1, and two home runs at 30/1 for some extra fun. I think he is due for a big one.
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