Braves vs. Mets: The Mets get another chance to pounce early after coughing up a lead in last night’s loss. Bryce Elder, today’s Braves starter, has been brutal on the road and is giving up loud contact everywhere he goes. With New York’s offense graded highest on the slate, this matchup sets up perfectly for more early fireworks.
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Last Month: 64-96 (+7.53u)
Last Week: 16-20 (+3.77u)
Braves vs. Mets Best Bets – August 14
Can Pete Alonso deliver again tonight for the Mets?
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Cheaper price than yesterday, and once again worth dabbling on. After the Mets blew an early lead and fell 11-6 to the Braves in game two of the three-game set, the Metropolitans look to close out the series with a win against Bryce Elder, who has been atrocious this season.
Elder vs. Mets
Elder enters today’s slate with a poor rating on Batters-Box, holding weak marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. This season, he is allowing 40% hard contact to opposing hitters. On the road, Elder owns a 5.61 ERA, allows 5.88 hits, and surrenders 3.5 runs per start. He has gone over this number in 13 of his 19 outings.
In his last 19 innings pitched away from home, Elder carries a 7.58 ERA, 4.48 xERA, and 43% hard hit rate. During that stretch, hitters have posted a .398 xBA, .557 xSLG, and .391 xwOBA.
The Mets enter today with the highest rated offense on the slate, featuring four elite rated hitters, one above the league strikeout rate, and nine above the league ground ball rate. Despite Elder being a strong ground ball pitcher, New York ranks middle of the pack in home ground ball percentage over the last four weeks. With Elder giving up a heavy dose of hard contact, I can live with hard hit grounders.
At home this season, the Mets are averaging 2.8 runs in the first five innings. After cashing this prop in the first inning yesterday, there is plenty of reason to believe they can replicate their early success against another struggling Braves starter.
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