Blue Jays vs. White Sox: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. steps into a highly favorable spot this evening against Sean Burke. The pitch mix, handedness splits, and advanced trends all work in his favor. Everything lines up for the Blue Jays slugger to deliver at the plate.
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Last Month: 58-139 (-22.2u)
Last Week: 7-22 (-6.25u)
The cold streak continues. I strongly suggest either taking any hitter I give out just to record a hit and pairing it with someone else for plus money—or fully fading the pick altogether.
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Best Bets – July 7
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. show up and show out on the Southside?
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A beautiful day to back Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as he takes on Sean Burke of the Chicago White Sox. The right-hander brings everything Guerrero loves—hard contact, a low ground ball rate, and struggles against right-handed bats compared t0 lefties this season.
Strong Matchup & Strong Trends for Guerrero
The 25-year-old starter throws 66% fastballs and sliders, both below league average per FanGraphs. Guerrero not only thrives against those two pitches—he is the best on the Blue Jays roster against them. Burke’s best pitch is his curveball, which he throws 21% of the time. Guerrero owns a .285 xBA, .462 xSLG, and a 50% hard hit rate against it.
The Blue Jays first baseman owns the highest rating in this matchup and has strong elite-rated trends on Batters Box. In 22 elite rated road games, Guerrero records a hit 72% of the time, two hits 32%, and goes over this prop 60% of the time. He has gone over 1.5 total bases in eight of his last 10 elite rated road games and six of his last 10 elite matchups overall.
The price may not be as sexy as we would like, but with a .787 OPS on the road and hitting just under .300, this is a great spot for Guerrero Jr. He has only one extra-base hit this month—which came Sunday afternoon—and feels due for a breakout game on the South Side.
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) odds via BetOnline
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