Blue Jays vs. Yankees: Predictions for the Game

Blue Jays vs. Yankees: Tuesday night, all eyes turn to Carlos Rodon as the Yankees’ postseason hopes hang in the balance. After a shaky first start in the Wild Card round, questions abound about whether he can hold the powerful Toronto lineup in check. Advanced metrics suggest this might be another long night for the Bronx Bombers, as Rodon has struggled with hard contact, line drives, and right-handed hitters in recent outings. Toronto’s bats have been feasting on lefties, and the matchup sets up perfectly for an offensive explosion. Here is why this prop presents immense value.

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Can the Blue Jays sweep the Yankees in the Bronx?

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The Yankees season will be in the hands of left-hander Carlos Rodon Tuesday night, and I personally think it is going to be yet another blood bath for the Bronx Bombers. I am already holding a Rodon postseason ERA over 3.09 ticket, and after his first start against the Red Sox, I expect much worse tomorrow night.

Rodon went six innings, allowing four hits and three runs in the Wild Card round, where he was more than due for a letdown game. His regular season stats do not tell the full story of his overachieving season. In his last few games, his ERA and expected ERA are completely different.

Rodon’s Numbers

The 32-year-old left-hander owns a 3.23 ERA in his last five home starts, while his xERA sits at 4.07 and xFIP at 4.39. On top of that, opposing hitters own a .390 xSLG and .327 xwOBA. In his last three home outings, Rodon has a 4.00 ERA and 5.01 xERA, allowing 45% hard contact and a 29% line drive rate. Opponents have a .275 xBA, .466 xSLG, and .361 xwOBA over that span.

Blue Jays vs. LHP

The Toronto hitters have been feasting on southpaws in their last 30 at-bats. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Daulton Varsho, and Alejandro Kirk are all batting above .280, with an OPS of at least .867 and a .500 SLG. Most of the Blue Jays lineup tomorrow will be right-handed bats, who have been giving Rodon trouble recently. In his last 30 batters faced, he sports a 4.50 ERA, 4.47 xERA, and 4.25 xFIP. Opponents are making 42% hard contact, 16% barrel rate, and 26% line drive rate, with a .345 xBA, .752 xSLG, and .343 xwOBA.

Could we see yet another two-touchdown game from this Toronto lineup? I think it is very possible. Carlos Rodon’s postseason struggles, combined with his recent home performance, set up a difficult night for the Bronx Bombers. Advanced metrics show he is allowing high hard-contact and line drive rates, while Toronto’s right-handed hitters have been thriving against lefties. With his ERA already concerning, the likelihood of another dominant offensive showing from Toronto is very real.

This prop is not only mispriced, but a full-blown gift. At $1.10, the potential payoff makes it an easy, confident play. Perhaps it is my lack of faith in Rodon’s ability to dig the Yankees out of this hole, but all signs point toward Toronto making a statement once again.

As I always say, 1.5 runs for an offense you trust is a gift. Here is the quote I stand by: “If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average more than two runs in the first five innings, and you are betting on an offense you already trust against a pitcher who likely does not deserve that level of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift.” – Me

Best Bet: Blue Jays First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-110) odds via BetOnline

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