Blue Jays vs. Rays:
The postseason race is heating up, and every game carries weight for teams fighting to stay alive. The Blue Jays find themselves back in Tampa, looking to shake off a quiet night at the plate after failing to cash their first five team total over. While the lineup as a whole underperformed, there is no better candidate to carry the load tonight than their franchise cornerstone, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Blue Jays first baseman may be riding a brief slump, but his track record on the road this season speaks for itself. He has thrived in hostile environments, consistently producing elite numbers against quality pitching. With a favorable matchup on deck against Rays starter Ryan Pepiot, who has been vulnerable to right-handed bats, Guerrero Jr. has a golden opportunity to flip the script and spark Toronto’s offense. All signs point toward him being the key piece in tonight’s bounce back effort.
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Blue Jays vs. Rays Best Bets – September 16
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leave the yard in Tampa?
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Heading back down to Tampa, where the Blue Jays offense came up short on the first five team total over last night. Tonight feels like another strong spot to back them, but the focus shifts to one player and his total bases prop: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the man with the biggest bat in Toronto’s lineup.
Vlad’s Trends
The Blue Jays first baseman is 0-for-7 over his last two games, making this a prime opportunity for him to snap the skid. On the road, Guerrero Jr. has been outstanding all season, carrying a .331 batting average, .416 OBP, .519 slugging percentage, and a .935 OPS.
He enters tonight with elite grades across Batters-Box hitter ratings. In 78 elite ratings over the last three seasons, he has gone over this prop 50% of the time. Narrow it to 12 elite ratings on the road this year, and the numbers jump: a hit 75% of the time, 2+ hits 41%, over this prop 58%, and a home run 33%. Small sample size, but worth noting.
Guerrero Jr. vs. Pepiot
The Rays will turn to Ryan Pepiot, who owns the sixth-worst pitcher rating on the slate. His recent struggles against right-handed hitters set the stage perfectly for Guerrero Jr. Over Pepiot’s last 60 right-handed matchups, hitters are posting a .311 expected batting average, .528 expected slugging, and .357 expected wOBA, with 51% hard contact and a 10.3% barrel rate.
Pepiot leans heavily on the fastball and changeup, combining for 70% of his arsenal. Guerrero Jr. ranks first on the Blue Jays in run value against fastballs, a clear edge. While changeups can give him some trouble, he has handled the rest of Pepiot’s mix well this season, and the remaining 30% of pitches sit below league average.
Guerrero Jr. finds himself in a prime bounce back spot tonight. The numbers show his success on the road has been undeniable, and with Pepiot’s struggles against right-handed bats, the matchup lines up perfectly for him to break out of this short slump. His strong history in elite rating spots, paired with his dominance against fastballs, gives us plenty of confidence in backing his total bases prop. With the Blue Jays looking to spark their offense, it feels like the stage is set for their star slugger to deliver and put his stamp on this game in Tampa.
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) odds via BetOnline
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