Blue Jays vs. Mariners: The ALCS shifts to Seattle for Game 3, and the Mariners have all the momentum heading home with a 2-0 series lead over the Blue Jays. After stealing both games on the road, Seattle now sits just two wins away from a World Series berth. The crowd at T-Mobile Park will be electric, and this lineup has been firing on all cylinders for weeks.
Toronto will turn to Shane Bieber in hopes of keeping their season alive, but his recent struggles against right-handed bats could spell trouble against a confident Mariners order. With several hitters locked in and the energy in Seattle at a fever pitch, everything points toward another explosive start for the home team. Let us dive into tonight’s matchup and where the edge lies.
Here are my favorite plays for Game 3!
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @ColbyMBets to get my full card every day! Picks are always FREE.
Last Month: 40-72 (+3.25u)
Last Week: 10-11 (+1.83u)
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 3 Best Bets – October 15
Can Seattle maintain their momentum at home?
Check out BetOnline’s New No Strings Welcome Offer that gives new MLB players up to $250 in Free Bets and 100 Free Casino Spins with their first deposit. Find out more about this Promotion as well as lots of other Free Sportsbook Promos right here!
We head to Seattle for Game 3 of the ALCS, where the Mariners hold all the momentum returning to their home field. Up 2-0 in the series, they ease closer and closer to a series sweep over the Blue Jays, who look like they celebrated a bit too hard after their divisional win over the Yankees.
Tonight, the Blue Jays send out Shane Bieber, who has not been the most reliable arm in their rotation. Entering tonight with a poorly rated matchup in both ISO and hard contact per Batter-Box, Bieber has been giving up a ton of hard contact this season at 45.12%, and even more in recent outings.
Bieber’s Struggles
Over his last three starts, Bieber holds a 3.86 ERA, 7.05 xERA, and 4.99 xFIP. Opponents are making 58% hard contact with a 14% barrel rate, while posting a .322 xBA, .660 xSLG, and .418 xwOBA. On the road, the numbers are just as concerning. His last three road starts show a 5.48 expected ERA, and his last five sit at 4.86.
The Mariners have four elite-rated hitters tonight according to Batter-Box, all batting from the right side. Right-handed bats have given Bieber major issues lately. Against the last 30 he has faced, he owns a 4.26 ERA, 9.82 xERA, and has allowed 50% hard contact and a 23% barrel rate. Those hitters have produced a .562 xBA, 1.001 xSLG, and .476 xwOBA.
Seattle’s offense continues to roll. Five hitters are batting above .259 over their last 30 plate appearances against right-handers. Six have slugging percentages above .407, five have OPS marks above .852, and seven hold ISOs above .222. This lineup has been locked in for two months, and their first five team total at 1.5 for $1.35 feels like a must-play.
Bonus Bet
For an additional sweat tonight, I am taking Eugenio Suarez’s home run prop at +450. Bieber’s ongoing struggles against right-handed bats make Suarez the perfect target, and he has tracked Bieber’s pitch mix well all season.
Seattle has been one of the hottest teams in baseball and now has a golden opportunity to close things out in front of a raucous home crowd. The numbers all point toward another strong offensive showing, especially early against a struggling Shane Bieber.
With how consistent this lineup has been, it feels like the Mariners’ first five team total should not stay this low much longer. Momentum, matchup, and environment all favor Seattle tonight. Between their right-handed power bats and the energy inside T-Mobile Park, it would not be surprising if the Mariners finish the job in dominant fashion. Another statement game from this group could officially stamp their ticket to the World Series.
Best Bet: Mariners First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-135) odds via BetOnline
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @ColbyMBets for all my picks and sports opinions. Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below among our best online sportsbooks and sign-up for a bonus!
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
- Picks & Odds for the NFL
- NFL Betting Guide for Beginners
- Pick & Odds for NCAAF
- NCAAF Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the MLB
- MLB Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NBA
- NBA Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NHL
- NHL Betting Guide for Beginners
More Betting Stories