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Last Month: 32-29 (+17.76u)
Last Week: 7-5 (+5.63u)
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Game 5 Best Bets – October 29

Can Trey Yesavage deliver another gem?
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Welcome to Game 5. This series continues to deliver, and we look destined for a full seven games. The Blue Jays look like the better team, even without George Springer. I truly believe Toronto is the team of destiny. The longer this series goes, the more it feels like the Dodgers lack the same drive and edge that the Blue Jays have shown. As you read this, I am going to contradict that take slightly, only because of the situation tonight in Los Angeles.
I am once again backing the Dodgers first five team total over 2.5, priced at even money. I have to in this spot, with Blue Jays rookie Trey Yesavage making his first road start since September 21 and his first career road postseason start. It is a massive moment, and I am fading him in it. In a small sample of nine innings pitched on the road this season, Yesavage holds a 4.00 ERA, 5.07 xERA, and 1.44 WHIP. Opponents are making 67% hard contact, with a .407 xBA, .625 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA. Over his last 30 right- and left-handed batters faced, opponents have an expected batting average above .303, with 42% or higher hard contact rates.
In his last outing in Toronto, Yesavage went four innings, allowed two runs on four hits, struck out five, and walked three. Another solid showing for the 22-year-old, but he has yet to face the energy and intensity of a hostile playoff crowd. Tonight, Dodger Stadium will be electric, with this being the Dodgers’ final home game of the series. Does Yesavage have ice in his veins to handle the moment? I think he might, but the numbers suggest regression is coming. Over his last three outings, he owns a 5.93 ERA, a 3.96 expected ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and is allowing 46% hard contact.
I would not advise taking this prop at anything above even money, as there is still plenty of value on the board. There is no reason to pay juice for 2.5 runs in the first five. If it were 1.5, that would be a completely different story.
Bonus: If you have no futures or plays tonight and want a side, the Blue Jays at +175 is flat-out wrong. Regardless of the outcome, Toronto should not be priced this heavily as an underdog. Their first five team total is once again 1.5 at plus money to the over, which still offers plenty of value for anyone backing the team of destiny.
At this stage of the series, every inning feels like a swing in momentum. The Dodgers have the experience and depth, but the Blue Jays continue to look like the hungrier, more inspired team. Whether or not Yesavage handles the pressure tonight will likely dictate how long this series lasts. I still see Toronto as the team built for the moment, but I will not ignore the value in Los Angeles early. One way or another, Game 5 sets the tone for what should be an unforgettable finish to a World Series that has lived up to every expectation.
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