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Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Game 3 Best Bets – October 27

Can the Dodgers win back to back?
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Everyone and their mothers love player props, so let us dive into a few looks that I believe stand out for Game 3 of the World Series. On the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays will be 41-year-old veteran Max Scherzer, who has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season. On the year, he owns a 4.94 ERA, 5.58 xERA, and a sub-5.00 xFIP. He has allowed 42% hard contact, a 17% barrel rate, and 2.47 HR/9. Left-handed hitters have produced a .282 xBA, .585 xSLG, and .379 xwOBA against him.
Scherzer vs. LHB
I want to be all over the top left-handed bats in this Dodgers lineup, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, each to record a hit at -120. Normally, I avoid paying juice for hit parlays or player props, but we are talking about two of the most reliable hitters in the game. Given the matchup, I think we are fortunate to get this number.
Over their last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, both Freeman and Ohtani have been dialed in. Each holds a batting average above .296, a wOBA above .466, a slugging percentage north of .600, and an OPS exceeding 1.067. Their home splits remain just as strong. While Freeman has a lifetime .200 average against Scherzer in 55 at-bats, that means little to me under the lights of the World Series. Ohtani only has six at-bats against Scherzer, which means nothing in my book.
To add to the case, the last 30 left-handed hitters Scherzer has faced have crushed him. During that span, he has an 8.53 ERA, 8.04 xERA, and 4.60 xFIP, while allowing nearly 67% hard contact, a 24% barrel rate, and 4.26 HR/9. Those hitters own ridiculous expected numbers: .466 xBA, 1.060 xSLG, and .441 xwOBA. With data that extreme, it is hard not to back some lefties for a hit here.
Bonus Bets
You are probably wondering, who is going to leave the yard?
Ohtani’s home run prop is around +160, while Freeman’s sits at +350. I would pass on Ohtani given the price, but Freeman’s number still offers enough value. I took Freeman because I want to be on one of these bats. If Ohtani ends up being the one, so be it. I simply do not want to pay under +200 for a home run prop in the World Series.
All signs point toward Los Angeles’ lefties coming through against a fading Scherzer. I am backing Ohtani and Freeman to stay hot and keep the Dodgers rolling. Let us ride with the better matchup and trust the numbers.
Side Note: For those looking at Ohtani’s total bases line of 2.5, do not take the over. Instead, bet him to hit a double or home run for better value. His double prop sits near +400, and his home run prop pays even higher. The only way that approach backfires is if he triples or hits three singles. It is simply the sharper way to chase value in this spot.
Bonus: Freddie Freeman Home Run (+370)
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