Home Run Best Bets: Two left-handed power bats land in strong spots tonight with elite matchup ratings and big value on their home run props. Kyle Schwarber and Vinnie Pasquantino both face starters with below-average stuff and pitch profiles that suit their strengths. When the numbers, matchup, and price all line up, you hit bet!
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Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today, May 27
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Last Month: 97-160 (+8.1u)
Last Week: 23-33 (+4.46u)
Braves vs. Phillies Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+275) odds via BetOnline
Will we see fireworks off the bat of Kyle Schwarber?
Kyle Schwarber finds himself inside Batters-Box.com’s top 15 ratings today and sits atop this game’s matchup board. The Phillies slugger has incredible home run trends when elite, in 138 ratings he leaves the yard 25% of the time. At home, in 50 ratings, he leaves the yard 26% of the time. Despite playing slightly better on the road this season, he still holds a .822 OPS at home.
He takes on Braves starter Spencer Strider, who according to Batters-Box.com, ranks poorly in average hitter matchup ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball percentage. He has posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in his first two starts since returning. The 26-year-old righty is throwing fastballs 58% of the time.
We are hoping and praying the big leftie gets ahold of a fastball this evening.
Against heaters, Schwarber owns a .330 xBA, .797 xSLG, .523 xwOBA, and a 65.9% hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. He also carries a run value of 12 against fastballs. Strider’s fastball has not graded out as above league average since 2023—and not above a whole number since 2022.
Want to read more about why I love Kyle Schwarber today? Click this link.
Reds vs. Royals Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run (+750) odds via BetOnline
Can the Italian Nightmare cash us big tonight?
I could sum this up in one sentence, but I will not do that to you.
Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino holds an elite rating today on Batters-Box.com. In 11 elite-rated matchups at home, he hits a home run 27% of the time. What has kept me off his other props is that he is currently riding an 11-game hitting streak.
That said, the big man is crushing 57% of Brady Singer’s pitch mix. The only question is how well he handles the sinker, which Singer throws 43% of the time. Fortunately, that pitch is graded below league average, which works in our favor.
This is more of an auto-play than anything else—elite rating, strong matchup against the arsenal, and an excellent price to go yard.
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