Home Run Best Bets: Two sluggers in prime bounce-back spots headline the card today. Aaron Judge gets a dream matchup in the Bronx. Cal Raleigh continues to mash lefties and draws another favorable arm tonight.
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Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today, June 4
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Last Month: 89-147 (+11.29u)
Last Week: 21-29 (+5.92u)
Guardians vs. Yankees Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Aaron Judge Home Run (+190) odds via BetOnline
Will we witness another legendary Judge outing?
I love the Captain today. He is coming off back-to-back hitless games and is due for a bounce-back. What better time than against a struggling right-hander who throws every pitch Judge has been crushing all season long?
The big man enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box. In 93 elite-rated home matchups, he records a hit 35% of the time.
Today he faces Guardians starter Luis Ortiz, who holds a poor rating on Batters-Box. He ranks poorly in average hitter matchup ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. On the road this season, Ortiz owns a 6.39 ERA and a .280 opponent batting average. He is allowing five hits and 1.5 extra-base hits per start. His best pitch is his sinker, graded at 2.95. Judge against sinkers this season has an 11 run value, .564 average, .905 xSLG, .637 wOBA, and a 61% hard-hit rate.
The weather in the Bronx this evening is expected to be in the low 80s with light winds blowing in. We know how powerful Judge is—10 mile per hour winds are not going to hold him back. It has been four days since his last home run. Today feels like the day he ends that streak.
Orioles vs. Mariners Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Cal Raleigh Home Run (+250) odds via BetOnline
Does Cal Raleigh have another big night in him?
Cal Raleigh enters the day with the only elite rating in this matchup. In 67 elite-rated games, the Mariners catcher hits a home run 26% of the time. The switch-hitting catcher has been killing left-handed pitchers. In 71 at-bats against lefties, he owns a .296 average, .676 slugging, and a 1.018 OPS.
Tonight, Cal Raleigh faces Orioles starter Cade Povich, who struggles in key metrics and pitch value. If you would like to hear more on why I like Cal Raleigh today, click this link.
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