MLB Best Home Run Bets: Today’s slate features several matchups that stand out for all the right reasons. We are targeting vulnerable pitchers facing hitters in strong form, backed by data from Batters-Box.com. These spots offer real value, and I am not passing them up.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, May 20
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Last Month: 92-158-2 (+1.29u)
Last Week: 23-31 (+8.99u)
Rangers vs. Yankees Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Josh Jung Home Run (+900) odds via BetOnline
Can Josh Jung cash our 9/1 home run ticket?
We are mainly here for the price—it is simply too high, in my humble opinion. Josh Jung draws a great matchup against Yankees starter Will Warren. My plate is already full today, but I had to load it up with one more slip that offers too much value to ignore.
The Rangers third baseman holds the fourth-highest matchup rating in this game, according to Batters-Box.com. He does not bring the flashiest elite trends—just a 7% home run rate across 28 elite-rated games—but the 27-year-old right-hander has already crushed five home runs this month. He is clearly seeing the ball much better in May, after managing only two home runs through all of April.
His success has a strong chance to continue today against Mr. Warren, who carries poorly rated metrics in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage. He owns a 4.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. While he has been more effective at home, only one of his five pitches grades out as above average. Jung matches up well against all of them, which makes this play far too good to pass up. Just sprinkle a little on the home run.
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