MLB Best Home Run Bets: Two hitters. Two very different price tags. But both are in smash spots tonight—backed by data and matchup edges.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, May 19th
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Last Month: 92-158-2 (+0.03u)
Last Week: 22-33 (+7.41u)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+176) odds via BetOnline
Can the great one bless us this evening?
Is the price gross? Sure, if it were for Ryan Jeffers. But for Shohei Ohtani, it is still within the range I am willing to gamble on. Anything above +160 should always be in play when Ohtani has a good matchup—and boy, does he have one today.
The Dodgers star enters tonight with a 0.701 rating on Batters-Box.com. Founder and developer Michael Montgomery always says that when Ohtani is above a 0.60 rating, he is an automatic play. Tonight, he is a full decimal higher. In 171 elite-rated matchups, Ohtani records a hit 76% of the time and homers in 34% of them. At home, in 67 such matchups, he gets a hit 77% of the time and leaves the yard at a 34% clip. He has not homered since Friday’s series opener against the Angels, and tonight may be his best spot all week.
Tonight he faces Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt, who holds the third-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com today. He ranks poorly in average hitter matchup ISO, hard contact allowed, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. On the road this season, Pfaadt has a 6.64 ERA and a .302 opponent batting average across four starts.
Ohtani matches up extremely well against all of Pfaadt’s offerings. Even with a sub-2/1 price on a home run, I still think it is worth dabbling. I played half a unit on the homer prop and half a unit on his over 1.5 total bases. I was not paying for that total bases prop.
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