Astros vs. Marlins: The Marlins are rolling, but they send one of the slate’s worst-rated arms to the mound in game two. Cal Quantrill has been crushed by right-handed bats all season, especially at home. With plus money on one of the Astros’ most consistent hitters, this spot jumps off the board.
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Last Month: 55-101 (-3.06u)
Last Week: 23-21 (+9.53u)
Astros vs. Marlins Best Bets – August 5
Can Jeremy Pena continue his dominace?
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Time to head down to the 305, where the scorching hot Marlins host the Houston Astros in game two of their three-game series. The Fighting Fish send out veteran right-hander Cal Quantrill, who holds the second worst pitcher rating on the day, according to Batters-Box’s current season ratings.
The 30-year-old has been torched at home all season by right-handed bats, which is why we are backing one of the most consistent hitters in the Astros lineup.
Jeremy Peña’s bases prop is priced at +105, and by the time you finish reading this, it should feel like a gift.
Peña vs. Quantrill
In addition to holding the second worst pitcher rating on the slate, Quantrill draws a brutal matchup, supported by poor marks in wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, and strikeout percentage. He has allowed nearly 40% hard contact on the year. At home, right-handed hitters are batting .351 with a .394 OBP, .629 SLG, and .434 wOBA. Overall against righties this season, opponents have posted a .338 average, .376 OBP, .589 SLG, and .965 OPS.
More than half of Quantrill’s arsenal is rated below league average, per FanGraphs. Peña not only matches up well with his better pitches, but he thrives against his worst.
On the road this season, Peña holds a .291 average, .442 slugging percentage, and a .785 OPS. He also owns an elite rating today on Batters-Box. The sample size is limited, but Peña has recorded at least two bases in three of his last five road games when holding an elite rating.
This might be the first time I have ever bet on Mr. Peña, and with his prop sitting at plus money for a hitter batting well above .300 with an .871 OPS on the season, it feels like a gift.
This is a great price. Take it!
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