Following back-to-back one-run wins, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be looking to break out the brooms against the Houston Astros in this week’s Sunday Night Baseball showdown (7:00 pm ET, ESPN).
Yesterday, the Dodgers (43-33, 24-14 home) scored five runs in their final two at-bats to overturn a four-deficit in an 8-7 win, with the go-ahead run scoring on a controversial balk call.
While it was a fourth straight win for Los Angeles, it was a seventh loss in nine games for Houston (41-36, 19-17 away). Will they avoid the sweep and pick up a critical win today? Read on for our Astros vs Dodgers prediction and best bets. First up, let’s take a look at the odds and the pitching matchup.
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
Odds are via Bovada as of Sunday, June 25, 2023, at 3:30 pm ET.
Moneyline
- Houston Astros +108
- Los Angeles Dodgers -130
Over/Under
- Over 8.5 (-105)
- Under 8.5 (-115)
Run Line
- Houston Astros +1.5 (-180)
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+155)
Pitching Matchup for Astros vs Dodgers
- Houston Astros: RHP Hunter Brown (14 starts, 6-4, 3.78 ERA)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Tony Gonsolin (10 starts, 4-2, 2.92 ERA)
Limping Astros Likely to Leave Los Angeles with Another Loss
Unfortunately for Houston, the prospects of preventing the Dodgers from breaking out the brooms are not particularly promising.
Last night’s loss saw Houston was only their third when scoring seven or more runs this season (in 17 games), so it’s not all bad for the Astros.
But it was a real missed opportunity, especially considering that they are highly unlikely to have that much success at the plate today.
Gonsolin gave up seven runs, six hits, and three walks in a loss to the San Francisco Giants on Sunday, which marked only the fifth time in 61 career MLB starts that he allowed more than three runs.
Two of those five times have occurred this month, as he also allowed four runs in five innings against the Reds on June 6.
But sandwiched between the two subpar starts, he tossed six shutout innings in a win over the Chicago White Sox. And that is the kind of outing we are more likely to see against the Astros.
In his MLB career, the Dodgers have lost consecutive Gonsolin starts only twice.
The first occurrence was in 2019, his rookie year, when they lost one-run games to the Diamondbacks and Giants on August 30 and September 7, respectively. The second occurred in 2021, when they lost to the Diamondbacks on July 30 and then to the Cardinals on September 9 after Gonsolin returned from a stint on the IL.
Also, the Dodgers rarely lose when Gonsolin gets the starting nod at Dodger Stadium. Last Sunday’s loss to the Giants was just the fifth for the Dodgers in Gonsolin’s 31 regular season starts at home.
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction for Astros vs Dodgers: Dodgers to win
Best Bets for Astros vs Dodgers: Dodgers ML
Last season, the Astros were the league’s best team–in win percentage–as a road underdog, winning 11 of 20 games (.550).
This season, they are just 8-10 (.444) as a road underdog, which is tied with the Washington Nationals for 14th in the league.
That record might turn around, but I don’t expect it to see any improvement today. There are never any sure things in sports or in betting, but Gonsolin is historically outstanding at home (17-4, 2.26 ERA in 32 regular season appearances), and as I noted, the Dodgers very rarely lose in his home starts.
You don’t often get this ML value with the Dodgers at home, and with Gonsolin on the mound, there’s all the more reason to take advantage of it.
