Angels vs. Mariners: The playoff race is heating up and every game matters for the Seattle Mariners. With the final AL Wild Card spot in their possession, Seattle cannot afford to let up, especially with Texas, Cleveland, and Kansas City lurking close behind.
Tonight, the Mariners face the Angels in what sets up as a crucial matchup with heavy implications. Seattle’s bats have been firing on all cylinders, while Los Angeles counters with a struggling left hander in Yusei Kikuchi. With urgency at an all-time high and the numbers lining up, the Mariners look primed to deliver another explosive performance at home.
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Angels vs. Mariners Best Bets – September 12
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As much as it pains me to root for a team that I have their under win total sitting in my back pocket, I want to win today. The Seattle Mariners should have yet another explosive outing this evening against the Angels. Currently holding the final AL Wild Card spot, Seattle needs to keep their foot on the gas in order to get into October. They are two games ahead of in-division rival Texas, 3.5 ahead of Cleveland, and five ahead of Kansas City. It is going to be a fight to the finish for that last spot.
However, we care about tonight, where we will be all over the Mariners first five team total over 2.5 at +114. I love the price, plus money for an offense that has been humming over the last few weeks and always plays well at home.
Seattle Trends
Seattle enters today with the sixth highest rated offense on the day, per Batters-Box. Their lineup features four elite rated hitters, two with great ratings, and two above the league ground ball rate. As mentioned earlier, the Mariners have been humming lately. Over the last two weeks, they are fourth in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS, while also being fifth best in strikeout rate and seventh in walk rate.
The Angels throw out left hander, Yusei Kikuchi, who owns the fourth worst pitcher rating among today’s starters. On top of that, he owns a poorly rated matchup in wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. This season alone he is allowing nearly 38% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Overall, the southpaw that gets 14+ hours of sleep prior to a start sports a 4.18 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. On the road is where his struggles lie. Through 15 starts, he posts a 5.45 ERA, allowing 5.8 hits and 3.4 runs per game. Meanwhile, opponents are hitting .289, making 46% hard contact, 12% barrel rate, and have a .496 xSLG.
In Kikuchi’s last three road starts, he owns a 9.88 ERA, which is 136% worse than his season average, per Handigraphs. During that stretch he also carried a 7.05 xERA and 5.29 xFIP. His opponents drew a .293 xBA, .607 xSLG, and .418 xwOBA, while making 47% hard contact and nearly 18% barrel rate.
Seattle vs. Kikuchi
All six of Seattle’s top rated hitters will bat from the right side this evening. Right handed hitters have been destroying the Angels southpaw. The last 60 he has faced, they own a .346 xBA, .657 xSLG, and .390 xwOBA. Meanwhile the left hander has an ERA of 9.95 and 1.82 WHIP. Kikuchi’s strikeout percentage is down to 15%, which is 35% worse than his seasonal average. His walk rate has climbed nearly 15%, putting men on at an 8.3% clip.
This feels like a very strong spot for the Mariners to continue their playoff push against a very familiar arm. The matchup checks every box. Seattle is swinging the bats at an elite level, Kikuchi has been falling apart on the road, and the splits line up perfectly with six right handed hitters ready to take advantage.
The plus money makes this even more attractive, especially when the urgency is on the Mariners’ side as they try to lock down October baseball. It is rare when motivation, form, and matchup align this well, but that is what we have tonight. For that reason, I feel confident backing Seattle’s first five team total over in what should be another statement game in their playoff chase.
Best Bet: Mariners First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+114) odds via BetOnline
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