AL MVP Update: Cal Raleigh is Still Not Worth It | July 21, 2025

AL MVP: The AL MVP race has shifted dramatically, and not everyone still on the board deserves your money. Cal Raleigh’s number has crashed, but that does not mean the value is still there. In fact, it is time to look elsewhere — and one name stands above the rest.

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Updated AL MVP Award Odds

Detroit Tigers pitcher and 2025 AL Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal in action during a game - 2025 Cy Young Award Odds & Favorites cover

Is Tarik Skubal worth dabbling in to win the AL MVP?

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world. BetOnline offers a wide variety of markets paired with the most competitive lines available, making them the go-to site to place your bets. Sign up today with Promo Code BNEWS and get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000, as well as $10 instantly in your account.

- Aaron Judge -1000 –> -600
- Cal Raleigh +475 –> +300
- Tarik Skubal +12500 –> +5000
- Bobby Witt Jr. +10000 –> +12500
- Jose Ramirez +12500 –> +12500

Odds listed are from June 30, 2025. Click here to read the previous write-up.

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Do Not Bet On Cal Raleigh

I can not stress this enough — if you did not bet on Cal Raleigh a month ago when he was 20/1 to win this award before going on a tear in Chicago against the Cubs, then you missed the mark. A 3/1 price for a guy who is more than due for regression in the second half of the season is not worth paying.

Raleigh is having an amazing year — I love to bet on him — but he is the only player on the Mariners who can consistently elevate the ball and be a true scoring threat on a nightly basis. He plays a demanding position, and his body may need more breaks as the season wears on. On top of that, the Big Dumper is going to see a lot more walks in the second half.

And I have not even gotten to the most obvious reason to stay away — he won the Home Run Derby. That will not only be the most detrimental thing to happen to his season, it will also hurt the Mariners. I am a firm believer in the Home Run Derby curse, which only adds to my reasoning. Taking Raleigh at 3/1 is not only a terrible price — the voters are not going to hand the award to a guy hitting under .260 who is just a glorified Kyle Schwarber.

So Where Is the Value?

Tarik Skubal. I said it under a month ago, and I will happily say it again. Aside from Aaron Judge, who is rightfully the odds leader to win this award, the Tigers ace is the most valuable player in baseball. He showed everyone once again on Sunday Night Baseball that he is that guy. After a dominant 6.2 innings pitched, allowing four hits and just one earned run, the left-hander racked up 11 strikeouts against the Texas Rangers.

Prior to Sunday night, the Tigers were on a six-game losing streak. Skubal came in and did his job, holding down the fort so the offense could get going. The 28-year-old stops any bad momentum approaching this team. He is the real MVP of this squad, and even after dropping from 125/1 to 50/1, I still think you are getting a strong price on a guy who is without question closer to Judge in this race than the odds suggest—and certainly closer than Raleigh is at this moment.

I am already holding a 125/1 ticket on Skubal to win this award, and watching those odds collapse has been pure bliss. Take the longshot who is not nearly as far off as the market suggests.