Al MVP Odds Update: It Is Still Judge | August 31, 2025

AL MVP: As the 2025 MLB season nears its conclusion, the American League MVP race has intensified, with Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh emerging as a strong contender. Raleigh’s remarkable achievement of surpassing 50 home runs has garnered significant attention, positioning him as a potential MVP candidate. However, a closer examination of his performance reveals a more nuanced picture. While Raleigh’s power numbers are impressive, his overall batting average and strikeout rate raise questions about his consistency and impact compared to other contenders.

In contrast, New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge continues to demonstrate exceptional all-around performance, maintaining a high batting average and on-base percentage, alongside a strong defensive presence. This analysis delves into the statistics and narratives surrounding both players, aiming to provide a comprehensive perspective on the AL MVP race and why Judge remains a formidable candidate.

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Updated AL MVP Award Odds

What else does he have to do to prove he is the AL MVP?

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world. BetOnline offers a wide variety of markets paired with the most competitive lines available, making them the go-to site to place your bets. Sign up today with Promo Code BNEWS and get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000, as well as $10 instantly in your account.

- Aaron Judge -190 –> -200
- Cal Raleigh +130 –> +155

Initial odds listed are from August 25, 2025. Click here to read the previous write-up.

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My favorite topic to discuss week in and week out is the AL MVP race. A lot of people have serious passion on this topic as well. I have seen it all across social media, and from what I have gathered, many fans—some casual, some diehard—have chosen Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh as their AL MVP. He is having one of the best statistical seasons we have ever seen from a catcher, but does that mean he deserves the award? No.

Despite his remarkable season, Raleigh ranks 74th in hits this season, 125th in batting average at .240, below league average, and fifth in strikeouts.

“You should go out there and play 140+ games in the hot sun and crouch down all summer long.” – The people of X/Twitter Thank you for the riveting thoughts, but that has nothing to do with the MVP race.

The Mariners win plenty of games without much help from Raleigh’s bat. Meanwhile, while Aaron Judge was recovering from injury, there were legitimate concerns that the Yankees might miss the playoffs because of how poorly they looked.

“What do you mean? Raleigh has 17 home runs since July?”

Yes, but 48% of his hits during that span have been home runs. Add in the fact that his strikeout rate is 37% since July 1. Nearly half of his hits are home runs, but he is also striking out almost 40% of the time. The league average is 23%. Since the All-Star break, Raleigh has had only six multi-hit games, compared to 16 hitless games.

How is this some people’s choice for MVP? Is it simply because they do not want Aaron Judge to win another award? Is it because he plays for the Yankees? I understand the hate, but numbers do not lie.

Aaron Judge’s Impact

The way Judge and the Yankees have played over the last two weeks gives the feeling they are ready to go on a tear in September. That should put this debate to rest, something I have been trying to do for a month. Especially after the weekend the Captain just had on the South Side. He finished the series with five hits, two home runs, and six runs scored, falling just a triple shy of the cycle this afternoon. Meanwhile, Raleigh has gone hitless in five straight games. His last hit came on August 25, when he hit his record breaking 50th home run of the season.

This is not slander toward Raleigh. He is having a monumental career year. Players can have career years without being MVP. His flowers are more than deserved, but he is not the AL MVP while Judge is putting together one of the best offensive seasons ever.

One last time: Judge’s on-base percentage is 81 points higher than Raleigh’s. His batting average is 84 points higher. His OPS is 185 points higher. Yes, Judge has fewer home runs and ten fewer RBIs, but that is all Raleigh has on him.

If you still think there is value in Raleigh, take your shot. But if enough people start hammering that number and somehow Judge drifts back toward even money, I will be all over it.

At the end of the day, the numbers do not lie. Raleigh is having a historic season, but the MVP is about production, consistency, and impact, and Aaron Judge is clearly dominating in all three categories. Raleigh’s milestone moments are impressive, but Judge’s all-around offensive excellence, especially over the last month, makes him the clear choice for AL MVP.

Still on the fence? Check out last week’s AL MVP race update for all the latest insights. Enjoy!