MLB Pete Alonso's Trade Effects on 2026 Projections

Pete Alonso’s stunning move to Baltimore sent a jolt through the World Series market and reshaped early expectations for both the Mets and the Orioles. A five-time all-star leaving Queens for a young, rising contender immediately shifts betting boards, public perception and projections for the 2026 season. Baltimore gains one of the premier power bats in the game, while the Mets lose their most reliable source of production during a week when their roster already took another major hit. This signing raises the ceiling for the Orioles and lowers the floor for the Mets, and the market is already reacting.

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2026 World Series Winner Odds

Would you bet the Dodgers to win the World Series at that price?

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- Dodgers +270
- Yankees +730
- Phillies +1000
- Mets +1200
- Mariners +1200
- Astros +1400
- Blue Jays +1400
- Red Sox+1700
- Braves +1900
- Brewers +2000
- Padres +2000
- Cubs +2500
- Tigers +2600
- Guardians +2700
- Orioles +3000

2026 American League Winner Odds

- Yankees +310
- Mariners +550
- Astros +600
- Blue Jays +700
- Red Sox +750
- Tigers +1200
- Guardians +1300
- Orioles +1400

2026 National League Winner Odds

Juan Soto Smiling on the Mets - Braves Mets props

Who can the Mets bring in to replace Alonso’s production?

- Dodgers +160
- Phillies +500
- Mets +650
- Braves +900
- Brewers +1000
- Padres +1000
- Cubs +1100
- Giants +1800

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The biggest news of the week broke yesterday afternoon, as five-time all-star and Mets home run leader Pete Alonso signed a 5-year, $155 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. The two-time home run derby champion is coming off an incredible 2025 season, where he hit .272 with an .871 OPS, crushed 38 home runs and drove in 126 runs. The captain and heartbeat of Queens signed a 1-year, $30 million contract before the 2025 season with the Mets. That contract made it clear that 2025 would be his final season with the Mets. They waited all offseason to re sign him, and he was bound to find a better home that appreciated his incredible bat.

How does this signing affect the Orioles and the Mets, who also lost Edwin Diaz this week to the Dodgers? For starters, I would want nothing to do with the team from Queens in any futures market, except maybe their wins total under this coming season. As of today, the 2026 Mets lineup will be Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Mark Vientos, Jeff McNeil and then it falls off a cliff. This does not even mention their lack of a rotation. I want no part of this group.

On the other side, the addition of Alonso is fantastic for the Orioles offense. With players like Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman, the Baltimore offense should be rolling once again. They also added former Angel Taylor Ward, who is a very underrated and consistent hitter. However, similar to the Mets, the Orioles do not have the arms to match the lineup. Starting pitching was their biggest issue last year, excluding days when Trevor Rogers was on the mound. It is great to see Baltimore getting aggressive this offseason, but I will need more before I start to buy in.

Early Future Leans

At this moment, I have zero interest in anyone. I could nitpick every team mentioned above in terms of price or roster construction. There are clubs I expect to target for win totals in the coming weeks. However, in terms of a league representative or World Series champion, it is December and I would not advise anyone to sprint to a counter to lock in a ticket. Let teams finalize their rosters first.