2025 ALCS MVP: Odds & Insights | October 20, 2025

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It all comes down to this, Game 7 of the ALCS, with the Blue Jays and Mariners battling for a spot in the World Series. Both teams have traded punches all series long, and every pitch now carries the weight of an entire season. For bettors, the spotlight should be on more than just who wins tonight. It is about finding the right angle in a matchup filled with storylines. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has taken full control of this series, delivering clutch hits and putting together an MVP-caliber performance when it matters most. His bat has carried Toronto to this point, and one more big night could seal both a series victory and the ALCS MVP award. With history on the line, Guerrero’s dominance may once again be the difference between heartbreak and celebration for the Blue Jays.

Let’s get into the value!

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here. 

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Last Month: 34-40 (+9.28u)

Last Week: 4-6 (-1.87u)

ALCS MVP Odds – October 20

Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will the Blue Jays to the Fall Classic?

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  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -120
  • Cal Raleigh +400
  • Eugenio Suarez +650
  • Josh Naylor +900
  • Jorge Polanco +1500
  • Julio Rodriguez +1700

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here. 

Insights & Leans

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has completely taken over the ALCS, and his performance has created a unique betting opportunity that goes beyond simply picking a winner in Game 7. Instead of backing the Blue Jays moneyline at -130 or higher, the sharper play is Guerrero to win ALCS MVP, currently around -120 or better. The value is clear. If Toronto wins tonight, it will be Guerrero’s award. He has been the heartbeat of the Blue Jays lineup, and if he delivers one more big night, the MVP trophy feels inevitable.

Guerrero in this series has crushed three home runs, totaled six extra-base hits, while owning a .519 on-base percentage and a .409 batting average. Excluding the two first two games of the series, where the Blue Jays went down 0-2 in the series. Every game since then, Guerrero has been involved.

I already have a play locked in for Game 7, which is up on our site now. However, if I did not, this would be my pick of the day. I already expect the Blue Jays to have offensive success against George Kirby, and Guerrero’s history backs it up. He is a lifetime .417 hitter against Kirby, with two doubles and a home run in 12 at-bats.

What if Seattle Wins?

For those leaning toward Seattle, my pick would be Josh Naylor at +900. Yes, Eugenio Suarez had a massive Game 5, but Naylor has been consistent throughout the postseason. He owns a .428 average this series, with three home runs and four RBI across six games. For the price and his steady production, Naylor is the best value play for ALCS MVP if the Mariners take Game 7.

No matter how Game 7 unfolds, this matchup has been a showcase of elite talent and timely hitting. Guerrero has reminded everyone why he is one of baseball’s premier power bats, while Naylor has emerged as Seattle’s most reliable postseason weapon. The MVP race feels like a coin flip that will ultimately be decided by who delivers in the biggest moment. Whether it is Guerrero lifting Toronto or Naylor carrying Seattle, both have written standout chapters in this ALCS. Game 7 will simply decide whose story ends with the trophy in hand.

Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ALCS MVP (-120) odds via Bovada

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