It has not been the best of starts for the Illawarra Hawks, but the reigning NBL champions opened their account for the season with a bludgeoning of the Brisbane Bullets last Saturday. Will they add a second consecutive victory as they visit Melbourne for their lone Round 5 contest? Going by past meetings vs. the SEM Phoenix, Illawarra might need to put up 100 points for the second straight game to have a chance to win at John Cain Arena.
The matchup will tip off at 5:00 a.m. ET, and viewers in the U.S. can watch the action on the NBA app as part of the new broadcast content partnership between the two leagues.
Illawarra (1-3) opened its season with losses to the Tasmania JackJumpers, Perth Wildcats, and New Zealand Breakers, the last of which was a 29-point annihilation in Auckland.
The 117-88 loss to the Breakers must have lit something in the champs, as they took out some frustration on the Brisbane Bullets last Saturday in a 116-89 win in Wollongong. Tyler Harvey had his best game of the season, tying his season high in points with 22 and setting season highs with 10 rebounds and seven assists.
Now comes the task of trying to win a road game for the first time since Game 4 of last season’s Grand Final series, when they downed Melbourne United 80-71.
The SEM Phoenix (2-2), meanwhile, have not played at John Cain Arena since September 25, when they fell 103-83 in a rivalry matchup with Melbourne United.
Can South East Melbourne rebound from a rough night at Adelaide on Thursday with a winning performance at home? Read on for our SEM Phoenix vs. Illawarra Hawks prediction and picks, as well as the best odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
SEM Phoenix vs. Illawarra Hawks Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEM Phoenix | -1 (-120) | -125 | Over 185.5 (-110) |
| Illawarra Hawks | +1 (-110) | +105 | Under 185. (-110) |
SEM Phoenix vs. Illawarra Hawks Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Illawarra Hawks to win
Though the Bullets are certainly not one of the NBL’s better teams, it was good to see the Hawks finally show their potential last time out.
They shot 50% or better in every quarter on the way to shooting 61.4% overall. That includes shooting 71% on twos (32 of 45) and 44% on threes (11 of 25).
For the second straight game, Harvey hit the 20-point mark, and this time, his points were influential. He also thrived as the primary distributor after the team elected to part ways with JaQuori McLaughlin a week ago.
Harvey recorded more assists than McLaughlin in each of the latter’s last two games with the Hawks, so it wasn’t as if Harvey was going in cold. But him getting so involved while still helping himself to a 20-piece is an encouraging sign for Illawarra, both for tonight’s matchup with the SEM Phoenix and going forward.
As for the Phoenix, a 114-77 win over of the Cairns Taipans was a perfect way to start the campaign, but they have not built off that win well.
In their last three games, they have scored just 83, 87, and 71 points. The 87 points were good enough to beat the Breakers in Auckland, but those numbers are even more glaring when you consider how many shots South East Melbourne takes. Through four games, they are averaging 82.3 shot attempts per game, tops in the league. However, only 38.9% of those attempts have connected, which puts them dead last.
Don’t expect the SEM Phoenix to alter their style against Illawarra, but the Hawks have the horse to handle a high-tempo game. It’s still fresh, but McLaughlin’s release might have been just what was needed to help the defending champs return to their best form.
SEM Phoenix vs. Illawarra Hawks Picks
1) SEM Phoenix/Illawarra Hawks Over 185.5 (-115 at BetOnline)
If most recent meetings between the SEM Phoenix and Illawarra are any indication, we should see buckets of buckets in Melbourne.
In the last 11 meetings between these two teams, the over 185.5 has hit eight times, including each of the last five meetings.
Also, the winning team has scored 100+ points in 10 of those last 11 meetings.
With how fast South East Melbourne plays, and with Illawarra not afraid to shoot either and coming off of a 116-point performance, we should expect no shortage of scoring at John Cain Arena.
2) Tyler Harvey Over 4.5 Assists (-110 at Bovada) 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 at Bovada)
With how much action there should be tonight, there are several player props worth a look. That makes it hard to narrow down, but the first one on the list must be the over on Harvey’s PRA.
In his first three games, he had 28 (19 points, six rebounds, three assists), 27 (19 points, five assists, three rebounds), and 29 PRA (22 points, six assists, one rebound) before going for 39 against the Bullets.
With what his role should be for at least the time being, this is one worth a couple of units.
So is the over on his assists prop, which feels rather low considering what he did in the two games before McLaughlin released and then against Brisbane.
It would appear that oddsmakers have not made an adjustment based on what he did against Brisbane. That is a benefit of following and betting on a league that plays in the wee hours in U.S. time and is more of a niche market than a mainstream one.
Hopefully that adjustment isn’t made quickly, but some money can be made off of both of these props in the meantime.
3) SEM Phoenix/Illawarra Hawks First Quarter Over 46.5 Points (-120 at Bovada)
As mentioned, points have been plentiful in most recent SEM Phoenix vs. Illawarra Hawks matchups, and first-quarter scoring has been key to that.
In nine of the last 11 meetings between the Phoenix and Hawks, the over 46.5 has hit in the first quarter nine times, including 52, 55, 58, 48, and 59 in the last five meetings.
4) Illawarra Hawks Team Total Over 92.5 Points (-120 at Everygame)
Instead of opting for the Illawarra ML or for the Hawks to cover the spread (you might as well do the former if you are considering the latter, for what it’s worth), I’m going with their team total to go over.
The Hawks have scored 93+ points eight times in the last nine meetings with the Phoenix, including seven games with 100+ points. After scoring 116 points against Brisbane, Illawarra should be in the mood to score more in tonight’s matchup in Melbourne.
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