Last week, the 2025-26 Australia NBL season got underway, with seven of the league’s ten teams taking the court across a five-game slate. This week, Round 2 will take place, featuring six games. It will tip off tomorrow morning U.S. time with a rivalry matchup between Melbourne United and the South East Melbourne Phoenix at John Cain Arena in Melbourne. For those who are night owls or early risers in the U.S., tip time for Melbourne United vs. South East Melbourne is 5:30 a.m. ET (7:30 p.m. Melbourne time).
Melbourne United, who is one of this season’s top championship favorites along with the Adelaide 36ers and Sydney Kings, opened the season with wins over the Tasmania JackJumpers (88-84) and New Zealand Breakers (114-82) in Round 1.
South East Melbourne, meanwhile, played only once in Round 1. Like Melbourne United, the Phoenix put up 114 points in a victory, as they blew away the Cairns Taipans by 37 points.
The blowout wins for Thursday’s “Throwdown” combatants were two of three Round 1 games that featured 190+ combined points, with the other being the Brisbane Bullets’ 104-95 win over the Breakers.
Will we see the scoring continue to begin Round 2? Top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline have set a high total for the Melbourne United vs. South East Melbourne Phoenix matchup, so we should expect to see at least a few throwdowns during the 29th installment of the Throwdown.
Melbourne United vs. South East Melbourne Phoenix Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne United | -3 (-105) | -146 | Over 188.5 (-120) |
| South East Melbourne Phoenix | +3 (-115) | +126 | Under 188.5 (+100) |
Melbourne United vs. South East Melbourne Phoenix Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Melbourne United to win
Melbourne United has had the upper hand in the brief history of the Throwdown, winning 19 of 28 competitive contests between vs. South East Melbourne. Last season, the two teams split their four matchups, with Melbourne United winning in Round 2 (96-84) and Round 20 (103-93) and South East Melbourne winning in Round 5 (93-84) and Round 12 (109-97).
Based on early odds to win this season’s NBL title, Melbourne United should have the upper hand for tomorrow’s game. While they come in at +450 odds, the Phoenix sit at +1000, tying them with the Brisbane Bullets for the sixth-best odds in the 10-team NBL.
Picks
1) Melbourne United -3 (-105 at BetOnline)
Melbourne United -2.5 is available, but this offers the best odds for -3, and as I expect them to win by more than three points, I’m going for the odds over the better line.
It is entirely possible that we could see a close contest decided in the final seconds. However, a one-possession victory on either side would go against how most Throwdown matchups have ended.
To date, only three of 28 games between Melbourne United and the South East Melbourne Phoenix have been decided by three or fewer points. Two of those were in the first three matchups, and the lone one in the last 25 was on April 7, 2022, a 90-88 Melbourne United win. In the 12 meetings since then, the closest margin of victory has been six, while nine games have been decided by double digits.
It is still early in the season, but that shouldn’t count for much. If Melbourne United wins, it will almost certainly be by more than three.
2) Melbourne United Team Total Over 95.5 (-118 at Everygame)
If Melbourne United wins, history also favors the over on their team total.
In their 19 wins vs. South East Melbourne, Melbourne United has scored 96 or more points 11 times. That includes each of their last four victories in the rivalry.
Veteran Melbourne United guard Chris Goulding, who averaged 19.1 points per game in 33 games last season, missed the first two games with a quad injury and will also miss at least this matchup.
Still, United poured in the points in Round 1, so there should be no worries about their offensive capabilities vs. South East Melbourne. That is thanks in part to new addition Milton Doyle, who starred for Tasmania the past three seasons and had 22 against them in the opener, followed by 15 with six assists in the win over the Breakers.
3) Melbourne United/South East Melbourne Phoenix Over 188.5 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
Both of these teams flexed their offensive muscles in Round 1, with Melbourne United scoring 21+ points in seven of eight quarters and South East Melbourne scoring at least 23 in every quarter against Cairns.
This is a high total that leaves little margin for error in a 40-minute game, but both teams are capable of landing in the 90s, so it is well within reach.