The racing action from Churchill Downs on Thursday features the Falls City Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!
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Track Full Card Analysis
Churchill Downs Picks: Thanksgiving Falls City Stakes (11/27/2025)
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1
Post Time: 11:30 AM ET; Claiming $78k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
Longshot Play of the Day
- #1 WINTERS LION (5-1): Longshot play of the day. Race sets up perfectly. Looks good based on the 91 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.
- #5 BARRICADE (8-1): Underneath. Looks to get a bit easier group here. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #3 COOL ANDY (3-1): Underneath. Previous success in similar race types. Could wear these ones down late.
- #6 RIGHT ON RIGHT ON (5-2): Underneath. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance.
Selections: 1 – 5 – 3 – 6
The Plays
Win: #1 at 5-1
Exacta Box: 1,5,3
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2
Post Time: 11:58 AM ET; Claiming $82k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.
- #8 MAP TO THE STARS (5-2): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Stamina to outlast the competition.
- #7 RISK IT (5-1): Major Player. Productive recent form. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #1 SINISTER SMILE (4-1): Major Player. Has been running well enough recently. Potential to have this pace fall just right.
- #4 FIELDING (6-1): Fringe Contender. Fast enough on paper to compete.
Selections: 8 – 7 – 1 – 4
The Plays
Win: #8 at 5-2
Exacta: 8/7,1
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3
Post Time: 12:26 PM ET; Starter Allowance $83k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.
- #4 SECURED LENDER (2-1): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration. Races competitive with the top contenders.
- #3 UNCLE WILLIAM (5-1): Major Player. Good race flow for this runner.
- #2 TURN UP THE TREES (3-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
- #8 VDAYTOTHETENACIOUS (15-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 4 – 3 – 2 – 8
The Plays
Win: #4 at 2-1
Exacta: 4/3,2
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4
Post Time: 12:54 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $134k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #1 SWEET SERAPHINE (3-1): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #3 FLASH WEAR (9-2): Major Player. Likely to get forward position. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #7 DECADENT (7-2): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners.
- #5 QUANTUM BURST (6-1): Major Player. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 1 – 3 – 7 – 5
The Plays
Win: #1 at 3-1
Trifecta: 1/3,7/3,5,7
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5
Post Time: 1:22 PM ET; Claiming $62k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.
- #4 GIVE HER ANOTHER (3-1): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
- #9 TEMPERS FLY (7-2): Major Player. Should take a liking to the race shape.
- #7 BAMTWENTYKLATER (5-1): Contender. Potential to have this pace fall just right.
- #3 MISTY MUPPET (12-1): Contender. Could be griding down the competition late. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.
Selections: 4 – 9 – 7 – 3
The Plays
Win: #4 at 3-1
Exacta: 4/9,7
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6
Post Time: 1:50 PM ET; Claiming $60k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 16 runners.
- #2 PROPRIETARY TRADE (5-2): Top pick. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Maker.
- #13 SWAGGISH (10-1): Major Player. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Likely to get forward position.
- #4 SHOW TIME (3-1): Major Player. Santana and Casse team up on this one. Should sit a good trip.
- #11 TOP GUN TOMMY (7-2): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 2 – 13 – 4 – 11
The Plays
Win: #2 at 5-2
Exacta: 2/13,4
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7
Post Time: 2:18 PM ET; Allowance $148k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 10 runners.
- #4 HEART HEADED (7-2): Top pick. Looks good based on the 97 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #9 NOTHING BETTER (3-1): Major Player. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Duarte.
- #8 DHABAB (8-1): Contender. This one’s a fighter in the late stages.
- #2 JOE SHIESTY (5-2): Contender. Ran at this level last out. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance.
Selections: 4 – 9 – 8 – 2
The Plays
Win: #4 at 7-2
Exacta: 4/9,8
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8
Post Time: 2:47 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.
- #1 AEOLIAN (9-5): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Shouldn’t have trouble getting the distance.
- #2 DELICIOUS DIVA (3-1): Major Player. Stamina to be in the mix late. Hernandez and Mcpeek team up on this one.
- #7 LA FANTASTICA (8-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Asmussen and Asmussen team up on this one.
- #6 GLAMORAMA (8-1): Contender. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 1 – 2 – 7 – 6
The Plays
Win: #1 at 9-5
Trifecta: 1/2,7/2,6,7
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9
Post Time: 3:16 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $141k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.
Best Bet of the Card
- #1 GRAND JOB (5-2): Best bet of the card. Comes in with solid form. Barn has been solid. Bet today’s best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
- #8 MARMALADE SKYE (9-2): Major Player. Should still be running strong in the closing stages. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #2 PISTOL (15-1): Contender. Could wear these ones down late. Previous success in similar race types.
- #6 TAPIT QUICK (15-1): Contender. Recent races are solid. Ran at this level last out.
Selections: 1 – 8 – 2 – 6
The Plays
Win: #1 at 1-1
Exacta: 1/8,2
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10
Post Time: 3:45 PM ET; Falls City Stakes $400k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
- #10 REGALED (5-2): Top pick. Ramos and Beckman team up on this one. Looks good based on the 103 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
- #2 RAGING SEA (7-2): Major Player. Top connections on the circuit with Prat and Brown. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #7 ROYAL SPA (3-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Barn has been sending out runners.
- #4 ALPINE PRINCESS (4-1): Major Player. Race conditions fit this one well. Ran at this level last out.
Selections: 10 – 2 – 7 – 4
The Plays
Win: #10 at 5-2
Trifecta: 10/2,7/2,4,7
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11
Post Time: 4:14 PM ET; Cardinal Stakes Presented by Resolute Racing $300k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 14 runners.
- #8 PIN UP BETTY (5-2): Top pick. Odds suggest this mare is ready to fire on debut. Races competitive with the top contenders.
- #9 VIVE VEUVE (3-1): Major Player. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #11 PROCTOR STREET (6-1): Major Player. Potential to kick home late. Gaffalione puts this one in with a chance.
- #2 MIWA (8-1): Major Player. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 8 – 9 – 11 – 2
The Plays
Win: #8 at 5-2
Trifecta: 8/9,11/2,9,11
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 12
Post Time: 4:43 PM ET; Allowance $127k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners.
- #11 NORTHERN CHILL (5-1): Top pick. Fits well with this group. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
- #10 CLAMPETT (10-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Should still be running strong in the closing stages.
- #9 EL PRESTIGIO (7-2): Major Player. Previous success in similar race types.
- #4 CURLIN’S GESTURE (10-1): Contender. Could be griding down the competition late. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 11 – 10 – 9 – 4
The Plays
Win: #11 at 5-1
Trifecta: 11/10,9/4,9,10
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