The racing action from Churchill Downs on Saturday features the River City Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!
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Churchill Downs Full Card Analysis
Churchill Downs Picks: River City Stakes (11/08/2025)
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1
Post Time: 1:00 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 6 runners.
- #2 MIZZOU (5-2): Prime Win Player. Race sets up perfectly. Looks good based on the 97 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
- #3 VALIANT HUMOR (15-1): Contender. Well bred for this race. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #6 RIPPED (4-1): Contender. May be able find the right setup. Could wear these ones down late.
- #5 SEA VISTA (2-1): Contender. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch.
Selections: 2 – 3 – 6 – 5
The Plays
Win: #2 at 2-1
Exacta Box: 2,3,6
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2
Post Time: 1:29 PM ET; Claiming $57k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #3 VASA (5-2): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Race sets up perfectly.
- #6 FIFTH AVENUE (8-1): Major Player. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch.
- #7 MAMOOT (3-1): Contender. Torres and Diodoro team up on this one. Barn has been sending out runners.
- #1 HONEST AL (7-2): Contender. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 3 – 6 – 7 – 1
The Plays
Win: #3 at 5-2
Exacta: 3/6,7,1
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3
Post Time: 1:58 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #5 BOLT DIOR (9-5): Prime Win Player. Machado and Girten team up on this one.
- #7 MIGHTY NORA (4-1): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #6 PARADISE STREET (6-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types. Should find today’s group a bit softer than the last race.
- #2 DON’TMINDIFIDO (9-2): Contender. Potential to get the pace of the race flow. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 5 – 7 – 6 – 2
The Plays
Win: #5 at 2-1
Exacta Box: 5,7,6
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4
Post Time: 2:28 PM ET; Claiming $78k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #3 DEER DISTRICT (3-1): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Looks good based on the 93 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
- #6 FIRST PLAYER (5-2): Major Player. Running well of late. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #5 DE’ MEDICI (5-1): Contender. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Mccarthy. Barn has been sending out runners.
- #7 FIREBALL BIRDIE (6-1): Underneath. Race conditions fit this one well. May be getting a weaker field than last out.
Selections: 3 – 6 – 5 – 7
The Plays
Win: #3 at 3-1
Exacta: 3/6,5
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5
Post Time: 2:57 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $141k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 7 runners.
- #1 A LILAC ROLLA (2-1): Top pick. Should be able to work out a trip. Stamina to outlast the competition.
- #2 ADRASTEIA (7-2): Major Player. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Seems to be up against the right competition.
- #3 REAGAN’S FLAME (5-1): Major Player. Has experience at this level. Previous success in similar race types.
- #7 STRIKINGLY SPUN (8-1): Major Player. Fast enough on paper to compete. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance.
Selections: 1 – 2 – 3 – 7
The Plays
Win: #1 at 5-2
Trifecta: 1/2,3/2,3,7
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6
Post Time: 3:26 PM ET; Claiming $60k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 13 runners.
- #1 SLIP MAHONEY (4-1): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #3 LUDWIG (6-1): Major Player. Likely to get forward position. Speed figures match this group well.
- #5 AIR OF DEFIANCE (7-2): Major Player. Likely in the mix early.
- #2 OUTLIER (15-1): Major Player. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 1 – 3 – 5 – 2
The Plays
Win: #1 at 4-1
Trifecta: 1/3,5/2,3,5
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7
Post Time: 3:55 PM ET; Claiming $82k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.
Longshot Play of the Day
- #7 TIMING DIFFERENCE (10-1): Longshot play of the day. Decent form of late. Ramos puts this one in with a chance. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.
- #2 BOURBON’S FAULT (8-1): Major Player. Productive recent form. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #4 RISK IT (5-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Likely in the mix early.
- #6 GOOD LORD (12-1): Major Player. Could be griding down the competition late.
Selections: 7 – 2 – 4 – 6
The Plays
Win: #7 at 10-1
Exacta Box: 7,2,4
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8
Post Time: 4:25 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.
- #11 DAGMARA (7-2): Prime Win Player. Favorable class relief in this spot. Barn has been solid.
- #3 PETRONELLA (5-2): Contender. Running well of late. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #15 BELLE OF LIBERTY (8-1): Contender. Potential to kick home late. The 75 speed rating is among the best in the field.
- #1 KISS MY HEART (15-1): Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance.
Selections: 11 – 3 – 15 – 1
The Plays
Win: #11 at 7-2
Exacta: 11/3,15
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9
Post Time: 4:55 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $134k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.
- #2 GARDINER (3-1): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Race sets up perfectly.
- #5 KALAHARI DREAMS (5-2): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
- #4 JACK’S TIME (9-2): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Top connections on the circuit with Saez and Von.
- #8 U DEVIL YOU (8-1): Major Player. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch.
Selections: 2 – 5 – 4 – 8
The Plays
Win: #2 at 3-1
Trifecta: 2/5,4/4,5,8
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10
Post Time: 5:25 PM ET; Dream Supreme Stakes $300k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
Best Bet of the Card
- #7 R DISASTER (9-5): Best bet of the card. Stamina to outlast the competition. Looks good based on the 102 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Bet today’s best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
- #4 HILLERITO (4-1): Major Player. Running well of late. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #10 HALINA’S FORTE (7-2): Contender. Ortiz and Bauer team up on this one. Has experience at this level.
- #9 MINK’S PALACE (8-1): Contender. Potential to get the pace of the race flow. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 7 – 4 – 10 – 9
The Plays
Win: #7 at 1-1
Exacta: 7/4,10
Daily Double (races 10-11): #7 with #9,6,12,5
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11
Post Time: 5:55 PM ET; River City Stakes $300k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 12 runners.
- #9 LAGYNOS (9-2): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Fits well with this group.
- #6 CHASING THE CROWN (7-2): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace. Gaffalione puts this one in with a chance.
- #12 TAKING CANDY (8-1): Major Player. Has experience at this level. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
- #5 WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST (10-1): Major Player. Top connections on the circuit with Saez and Lynch. Ran at this level last out.
Selections: 9 – 6 – 12 – 5
The Plays
Win: #9 at 9-2
Trifecta: 9/6,12/5,6,12
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