The racing action from Churchill Downs on Saturday features the Commonwealth Turf Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!
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Churchill Downs Full Card Analysis
Churchill Downs Picks: Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes (11/22/2025)
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1
Post Time: 1:00 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $48k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #1 STAY BEAUTIFUL (3-1): Top pick. Favorable class relief in this spot. Should be able to work out a trip.
- #7 G ROCKS (5-2): Major Player. Well bred for this race. Likely to get forward position.
- #4 BEAUTIFUL MCKINZIE (4-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners.
- #2 MIDNIGHT FLIGHT (7-2): Fringe Contender. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Recent races are solid.
Selections: 1 – 7 – 4 – 2
The Plays
Win: #1 at 3-1
Exacta: 1/7,4
Pick 3 (races 1-3): #1,7,4 with #1 with #2,3,5,6
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2
Post Time: 1:29 PM ET; Claiming $45k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
Best Bet of the Card
- #1 CINNAMON SUGAR (5-2): Best bet of the card. Stamina to outlast the competition. Ortiz and Asmussen team up on this one. Bet today’s best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
- #2 STARLIT NITE (2-1): Major Player. Speed figures match this group well. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance.
- #3 DOS AMORES (4-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types. This one’s a fighter in the late stages.
- #7 AYE BAY BAY (7-2): Underneath. Potential to get the pace of the race flow. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong.
Selections: 1 – 2 – 3 – 7
The Plays
Win: #1 at 1-1
Exacta: 1/2,3
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3
Post Time: 1:58 PM ET; Claiming $78k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 6 runners.
- #2 COPPER EM (5-2): Top pick. Stamina to outlast the competition. Comes in with solid form.
- #3 PATTY VAN TWINKLE (8-5): Major Player. Speed figures match this group well. Likely to get forward position.
- #5 PROMISES TO DANCE (2-1): Major Player. Could jump up in the figures and be dangerous. May be able find the right setup.
- #6 ALWAYS ANGELS (8-1): Major Player. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 2 – 3 – 5 – 6
The Plays
Win: #2 at 5-2
Trifecta: 2/3,5/3,5,6
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4
Post Time: 2:28 PM ET; Claiming $62.1k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #2 KIRIN (5-2): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Looks good based on the 90 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
- #3 RAVIN’S RANSOM (4-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Rodriguez and Rivelli team up on this one.
- #5 SHAN (9-2): Contender. Should sit a good trip. Speed figs match up nicely.
- #4 SEXAGENARIAN (3-1): Fringe Contender. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.
Selections: 2 – 3 – 5 – 4
The Plays
Win: #2 at 5-2
Exacta: 2/3,5
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5
Post Time: 2:57 PM ET; Allowance $127k; 1 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.
- #16 BIJOU BABY (20-1): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
- #12 FEELING BEACHY (15-1): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace. Leparoux puts this one in with a chance.
- #11 GOOD GAME (10-1): Major Player. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish. Speed figs match up nicely.
- #9 PRINCESS ATTITUDE (3-1): Major Player. Could be ready to hit a peak performance. May be getting a weaker field than last out.
Selections: 16 – 12 – 11 – 9
The Plays
Win: #16 at 5-1
Trifecta: 16/12,11/9,11,12
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6
Post Time: 3:26 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $67k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 16 runners.
Longshot Play of the Day
- #1 LETS SHANCE IT (5-1): Longshot play of the day. Comes in with solid form. Strong early pace figs. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.
- #4 SONIC SASS (15-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Should take a liking to the race shape.
- #13 WARM UP THE BUS (15-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Likely in the mix early.
- #11 DESPERATE DREAMS (7-2): Contender. Trainer’s horses have been running. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.
Selections: 1 – 4 – 13 – 11
The Plays
Win: #1 at 5-1
Exacta Box: 1,4,13
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7
Post Time: 3:55 PM ET; Claiming $63k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
- #2 I HAD THAT ONE TOO (10-1): Prime Win Player. Proven competitor at this configuration. Looks good based on the 82 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
- #10 WITS AND WAGERS (5-2): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet. Should still be running strong in the closing stages.
- #6 MIZMALICE (6-1): Fringe Contender. Could wear these ones down late.
- #1 AGGRO (4-1): Fringe Contender. Could be griding down the competition late. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 2 – 10 – 6 – 1
The Plays
Win: #2 at 5-1
Exacta: 2/10,6
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8
Post Time: 4:25 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
- #4 JOKE MAKER (3-1): Top pick. Stamina to outlast the competition. Strong early pace figs.
- #7 KAYLA’S KOMET (4-1): Major Player. Speed figures match this group well. Good race flow for this runner.
- #8 TOUCH OF MAGIC (7-2): Contender. Not likely to be short in the stretch. Speed figs match up nicely.
- #9 NEVER SAID NO (5-1): Fringe Contender. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 4 – 7 – 8 – 9
The Plays
Win: #4 at 3-1
Exacta: 4/7,8
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9
Post Time: 4:55 PM ET; Claiming $76k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners.
- #9 TIMING DIFFERENCE (6-1): Top pick. Could be ready for a top effort. Race may setup for this runner.
- #8 GOOD LORD (5-1): Major Player. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #7 RIDDLE SOLVER (9-2): Major Player. Speed figs match up nicely. Has been running well enough recently.
- #10 COLONEL CALIENTE (8-1): Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.
Selections: 9 – 8 – 7 – 10
The Plays
Win: #9 at 6-1
Exacta: 9/8,7
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10
Post Time: 5:25 PM ET; Commonwealth Turf Stakes $300k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 11 runners.
- #8 CHAPMAN’S PEAK (9-2): Top pick. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Cox. Shouldn’t have trouble getting the distance.
- #10 SIMULATE (12-1): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Should still be running strong in the closing stages.
- #2 TROUBLESHOOTING (7-2): Major Player. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
- #3 MONTADOR (5-1): Major Player. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch.
Selections: 8 – 10 – 2 – 3
The Plays
Win: #8 at 9-2
Trifecta: 8/10,2/2,3,10
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11
Post Time: 5:55 PM ET; Starter Allowance $83k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.
- #5 JUST ASAP (7-2): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Race sets up perfectly.
- #2 SLEEPINGONFREEDOM (9-2): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Should still be running strong in the closing stages.
- #11 COLT FORTY SEVEN (6-1): Contender. Should sit a good trip. Previous success in similar race types.
- #6 BIG APPLE PATRICK (6-1): Underneath. Race shape gives this one an edge. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 5 – 2 – 11 – 6
The Plays
Win: #5 at 7-2
Exacta: 5/2,11
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Thursday Analysis
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Saturday Analysis
- Del Mar Picks featuring the Grade 3 Native Dancer Stakes
- Churchill Downs Stakes featuring the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes
Sunday Analysis
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- Del Mar Picks featuring the Grade 3 Red Carpet Stakes