The site of the Kentucky Derby returns on Saturday when Churchill Downs runs their first card of the season. @HandcappingT3 has your Churchill Downs picks for the entire card.
Looking to get a jump on your Derby prep? Check out our article on becoming a Kentucky Derby Savant.
Full Card Analysis
Churchill Downs Picks- Derby Track Returns (4/26/2025)
Bet all of today’s selections with signup bonuses and promotions at BetOnline.
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1
Post Time: 5:00 PM ET; Claiming $45k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners
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#7 SYNTHESIS (7-2): Prime Win Player. Comes in with solid form. Stamina to outlast the competition.
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#8 HOODLUM (3-1): Contender. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues.
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#5 PERUVIAN LUCKY (5-1): Worth a look. Previous success in similar race types. Has experience at this level.
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#1 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS (4-1): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out. Competitive enough in recent efforts.
Selections: 7 – 8 – 5 – 1
The Plays
- Win: #7 at 2-1 or better
- Exacta: 7/1,5,8
- Trifecta: 7/5,8/1,4,5,8
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2
Post Time: 5:28 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $141k; 1 M Turf; Field of 7 runners
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#5 MISSION OF JOY (9-5): Prime Win Player. Stamina to outlast the competition. Looks good based on the 92 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
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#7 NO MO CANDY (2-1): Fringe Contender. Stamina to be in the mix late. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
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#4 JUSTIFIABLE BELLE (3-1): Worth a look. Could wear these ones down late. Previous success in similar race types.
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#2 NEVERWALKALONE (10-1): Fringe Contender. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.
Selections: 5 – 7 – 4 – 2
The Plays
- Win: #5 at 7-5 or better
- Exacta: 5/2,4
- Trifecta: 5/2,4/2,4,7
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3
Post Time: 5:56 PM ET; Starter Allowance $62k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners
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#7 CREATIVE QUALITY (5-2): Prime Win Player. Proven competitor at this configuration.
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#1 CERVARO DELLA SALA (3-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Should take a liking to the race shape.
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#2 BOLT ON THE ROCKS (5-1): Contender. Not likely to be short in the stretch.
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#3 NEXT UP (7-2): Fringe Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 7 – 1 – 2 – 3
The Plays
- Win: #7 at 8-5 or better
- Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2
- Trifecta: 7/1,2/,1,2,3,4,6,8
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4
Post Time: 6:26 PM ET; Allowance $127k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners
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#6 SUNDANCE FEATURE (2-1): Top pick. Looks good based on the 94 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Proven competitor at this configuration.
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#3 SAM’S TREASURE (3-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
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#4 OUTRAGEOUSLY (12-1): Contender. Potentially ready to hit a top number. Previous success in similar race types.
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#5 TWIRL AROUND (7-2): Fringe Contender. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.
Selections: 6 – 3 – 4 – 5
The Plays
- Win: #6 at 8-5 or better
- Exacta Box: 3,4,6
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5
Post Time: 6:57 PM ET; Claiming $58k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners
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#4 CAROLO RAPIDO (5-2): Prime Win Player. Race may setup for this runner. Decent form of late.
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#2 MUCHO MOJO (4-1): Contender. Seems to be up against the right competition. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
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#6 FORGE IN FIRE (7-2): Worth a look. Has experience at this level. Not likely to be short in the stretch.
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#7 EVENING NEWS (5-1): Fringe Contender. Spicer is the leading trainer in the standings.
Selections: 4 – 2 – 6 – 7
The Plays
- Win: #4 at 8-5 or better
- Exacta: 4/2,5,6,7
- Trifecta: 4/2,6/2,5,6,7
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6
Post Time: 8:04 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $67k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners
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#4 TAPAKENA (4-1): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Race sets up perfectly.
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#3 HOLSTER (9-2): Major Player. Johnston is a good bet at the meet. Potentially cycling to a top performance.
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#5 LEMON SOHN (12-1): Contender. Could jump up in the figures and be dangerous. Has been running well enough recently.
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#2 SHADOW COAST (5-1): Contender. Ran at this level last out.
Selections: 4 – 3 – 5 – 2
The Plays
- Win: #4 at 2-1 or better
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7
Post Time: 8:37 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 1 1/4 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners
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#2 PLAZA CUE (5-2): Top pick. Looks good based on the 81 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Race sets up perfectly.
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#4 CHURNING BERNI (4-1): Major Player. Likely to get forward position. May be able to take advantage of the pace.
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#5 KISS ME AGAIN (7-2): Contender. Not likely to be short in the stretch. Has been running well enough recently.
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#8 VINO TIEMPO (5-1): Fringe Contender. Could be ready to hit a peak performance.
Selections: 2 – 4 – 5 – 8
The Plays
- Win: #2 at 9-5 or better
- Win: #4 at 4-1 or better
- Exacta Box: 2,4,5
- Daily Double: 2,4/2,3
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8
Post Time: 9:09 PM ET; Claiming $76k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 14 runners
Longshot Play of the Day
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#3 FAIRE PLAISIR (8-1): Top pick. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
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#2 TALENT SHOW (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.
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#1 SMOOTH WAVES (7-2): Contender. Potential to kick home late.
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#5 SWEET VOYAGE (15-1): Fringe Contender. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.
Selections: 3 – 2 – 1 – 5
The Plays
- Win: #3 at 2-1 or better
- Exacta Box: 1,2,3
- Pick 3: 1,2,3/1,2,6/3
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9
Post Time: 9:40 PM ET; Roxelana Stakes presented by LG&E and KU $200k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners
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#2 SANDY BOTTOM (5-2): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration.
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#1 NON VIOLENCE (9-2): Major Player. Seems to be up against the right competition. Good race flow for this runner.
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#6 HARBOR SPRINGS (3-1): Major Player. Could jump up in the figures and be dangerous.
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#3 LADY MOSCATO (10-1): Contender. Competitive enough in recent efforts. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.
Selections: 2 – 1 – 6 – 3
The Plays
- Win: #2 at 5-2 or better
- Win: #1 at 5-2 or better
- Exacta Box: 1,2
- Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,6/1,2,3,6
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10
Post Time: 10:10 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $72k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners
Best Bet of the Card
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#3 EVAN ON EARTH (7-5): Best bet of the card. Strong early pace figs. Stamina to outlast the competition. Bet today’s best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
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#8 SHEPHERD (9-2): Fringe Contender. Potentially cycling to a top performance.
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#9 SERGEANT CAPPS (8-1): Worth a look. Has experience at this level.
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#7 WHERE Y’AT (15-1): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out. Competitive enough in recent efforts.
Selections: 3 – 8 – 9 – 7
The Plays
- Win: #3 at 6-5 or better
- Exacta: 3/7,8,9
- Trifecta: 3/7,8,9/7,8,9
Betting News Horse Racing Coverage
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