The racing action from Churchill Downs on Saturday features the Chilukki Stakes Presented by Resolute Racing. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!
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Churchill Downs Full Card Analysis
Churchill Downs Picks: Chilukki Stakes (11/15/2025)
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1
Post Time: 1:00 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.
- #3 PROJECT ACE (3-1): Top pick. Strong early pace figs.
- #5 QUARRY (7-2): Major Player. Speed figures match this group well.
- #4 ONYX OUTLAW (12-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Previous success in similar race types.
- #7 PROPS (10-1): Major Player. Competitive enough in recent efforts. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 3 – 5 – 4 – 7
The Plays
Win: #3 at 3-1
Exacta: 3/5,4
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2
Post Time: 1:29 PM ET; Starter Allowance $83k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
- #3 FAIRE PLAISIR (15-1): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Race may setup for this runner.
- #5 SHE’S NOT A JOKE (12-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Likely to get forward position.
- #9 BOLT ON THE ROCKS (5-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Should find today’s group a bit softer than the last race.
- #6 ANGEL BELLA (6-1): Contender. Machado and Beckman team up on this one. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 3 – 5 – 9 – 6
The Plays
Win: #3 at 5-1
Trifecta: 3/5,9/5,6,9
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3
Post Time: 1:58 PM ET; Chilukki Stakes Presented by Resolute Racing $300k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #6 ONE MAGIC PHILLY (3-1): Top pick. Love the heart this one shows in a fight. Barn has been solid.
- #7 RAGTIME (8-5): Major Player. Seems to be up against the right competition. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #2 SHRED THE GNAR (5-2): Major Player. The 97 speed rating is among the best in the field.
- #1 IMPEL (9-2): Fringe Contender. Recent races are solid. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch.
Selections: 6 – 7 – 2 – 1
The Plays
Win: #6 at 3-1
Exacta: 6/7,2
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4
Post Time: 2:28 PM ET; Starter Allowance $100k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
- #7 CONCRETE GLORY (7-5): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Barn has been solid.
- #5 WOUND UP (9-5): Major Player. Should still be running strong in the closing stages.
- #9 TAP IN FORMATION (8-1): Fringe Contender. Likely in the mix early.
- #6 SHARP WARNING (20-1): Underneath. Trainer’s horses have been running. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 7 – 5 – 9 – 6
The Plays
Win: #7 at 7-5
Exacta: 7/5,9
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5
Post Time: 2:57 PM ET; Starter Allowance $150k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.
- #11 GOATS ON A TREE (4-1): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #7 ASHIMA (3-1): Major Player. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Santoro. Should still be running strong in the closing stages.
- #1 SETTLING STORM (8-1): Contender. Should sit a good trip. Should find today’s group a bit softer than the last race.
- #12 CAIRO STREET (12-1): Contender. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance. Speed figs are a bit slow, but not completely hopeless against the top of the field.
Selections: 11 – 7 – 1 – 12
The Plays
Win: #11 at 4-1
Exacta: 11/7,1
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6
Post Time: 3:26 PM ET; Starter Allowance $100k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 16 runners.
- #7 FREEDOM ROAD (7-2): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Stamina to outlast the competition.
- #5 TIME FOR TROUBLE (4-1): Major Player. Running well of late. Speed figures match this group well.
- #11 I FEELUCKY TONITE (6-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types. This one’s a fighter in the late stages.
- #6 CURLIN’S MALIBU (5-1): Contender. Race shape gives this one an edge.
Selections: 7 – 5 – 11 – 6
The Plays
Win: #7 at 7-2
Exacta: 7/5,11
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7
Post Time: 3:55 PM ET; Starter Allowance $100k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 14 runners.
- #11 NEXT GIRL (5-1): Top pick. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #9 SADIE THE GOAT (4-1): Major Player. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #13 MERCY WARREN (3-1): Major Player. Should find today’s group a bit softer than the last race. Has been running well enough recently.
- #4 PINK ROSE (12-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance.
Selections: 11 – 9 – 13 – 4
The Plays
Win: #11 at 5-1
Trifecta: 11/9,13/4,9,13
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8
Post Time: 4:25 PM ET; Starter Allowance $150k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 16 runners.
- #4 FROSTY VIEW (3-1): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Races competitive with the top contenders.
- #5 FINAL VERDICT (9-2): Major Player. Looks to get a bit easier group here. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #13 HIGH FRONT (15-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. May be able find the right setup.
- #8 PINFIRE (7-2): Contender. Trainer’s horses have been running. Concepcion and Tomlinson team up on this one.
Selections: 4 – 5 – 13 – 8
The Plays
Win: #4 at 3-1
Exacta: 4/5,13
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9
Post Time: 4:55 PM ET; Starter Allowance $125k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 18 runners.
- #11 GILMORE (4-1): Top pick. Favorable class relief in this spot. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #10 GLOBAL SENSATION (10-1): Major Player. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues. Trainer is having a great meet.
- #4 SOZE (12-1): Major Player. Potential to have this pace fall just right. Martinez puts this one in with a chance.
- #12 KEEN CAT (8-1): Major Player. Trainer’s horses have been running. Fast enough on paper to compete.
Selections: 11 – 10 – 4 – 12
The Plays
Win: #11 at 4-1
Trifecta: 11/10,4/4,10,12
Pick 3 (races 9-11): #11,10,4,12 with #7,13 with #3
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10
Post Time: 5:25 PM ET; Starter Allowance $200k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 16 runners.
Longshot Play of the Day
- #7 DOUBLE YOUR MONEY (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Top connections on the circuit with Gonzalez and Dunn. Proven competitor at this configuration. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.
- #13 POINT DUME (9-2): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
- #12 NAVAJO WARRIOR (7-2): Contender. Previous success in similar race types.
- #2 CADET CORPS (6-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 7 – 13 – 12 – 2
The Plays
Win: #7 at 6-1
Exacta Box: 7,13,12
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11
Post Time: 5:55 PM ET; Starter Allowance $175k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 15 runners.
Best Bet of the Card
- #3 RISK MANAGER (2-1): Best bet of the card. Looks good based on the 94 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Race sets up perfectly. Bet today’s best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
- #9 ECHO LANE (3-1): Contender. Good race flow for this runner. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues.
- #4 NANTASKET BEACH (8-1): Contender. Hard to argue with the recent races. Should find today’s group a bit softer than the last race.
- #7 MISTER ABARRIO (12-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 3 – 9 – 4 – 7
The Plays
Win: #3 at 1-1
Exacta: 3/9,4
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Friday
- Aqueduct Picks featuring the Notebook Stakes
Saturday Analysis
- Aqueduct Picks featuring the Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks Stakes
- Churchill Downs Stakes featuring the Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes
- Woodbine Picks featuring the Grade 2 Kennedy Road Stakes
Sunday Analysis
- Aqueduct Picks featuring the Grade 3 Pebbles Stakes