Churchill Downs Picks: Blame Stakes (5/31/2025)

The racing action from Churchill Downs on Saturday features the Blame Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!

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Churchill Downs Full Card Analysis

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Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:45 P.M. ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

• #1 BOURBON SOCIETY (4-1): Top pick. Shouldn’t have trouble getting the distance. Races that could beat these.

• #2 CROMWELL (3-1): Major Player. Stamina to be in the mix late.

• #5 CHILLAX (8-5): Contender. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish. Potential to have this pace fall just right.

• #3 KAVANAUGH (10-1): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 5 – 3

The Plays

• Win: 1 at 5-2

• Exacta: 1,2,3 box

• Trifecta: 1/2,3,5/2,3,5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 1:14 P.M. ET; Claiming $64k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

• #3 MORELLO (9-2): Prime Win Player. Should be able to work out a trip. Fits well with this group.

• #4 UNCASHED (4-1): Contender. Productive recent form. May be able to take advantage of the pace.

• #5 M B’S MUNNING (5-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types.

• #11 ONE COOL DUDE (8-1): Contender. Trainer’s horses have been running. Ran at this level last out.

Selections: 3 – 4 – 5 – 11

The Plays

• Win: 3 at 9-2

• Pick 3 (Races 2-4): 3 / 2,10,11,15, / 4

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:43 P.M. ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 5 F Dirt; Field of 15 runners.

• #2 BACKGAMMON (8-1): Longshot play of the day. Looks good based on the 64 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Love the heart this one shows in a fight. Previous success in similar race types. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.

• #15 MY RAQUEL (8-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #11 STARDIALED (4-1): Contender. Potential to have this pace fall just right.

• #10 SOUNDSMISCHIEVOUS (12-1): Contender. Trainer’s horses have been running. May be a better effort in the 2nd start.

Selections: 2 – 15 – 11 – 10

The Plays

• Win: 2 at 4-1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 2:14 P.M. ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

• #4 KAPOOR (7-2): Prime Win Player. Proven competitor at this configuration. Race sets up perfectly.

• #7 STRONG DESTINY (9-2): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #11 SPEIGHTER WOMAN (6-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types. Potential to have this pace fall just right.

• #1 PUTONAHAPPYFACE (10-1): Contender. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong.

Selections: 4 – 7 – 11 – 1

The Plays

• Win: 4 at 9-5

• Exacta: 4/1,7,11

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 2:46 P.M. ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $127k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

• #7 HEAVENLY SUNSET (7-2): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #2 TETIAROA (3-1): Major Player. Seems to be up against the right competition. Likely to get forward position.

• #11 OVERCOME ADVERSITY (8-1): Worth a look. Previous success in similar race types. The 93 speed rating is among the best in the field.

• #6 CLICQUOT (5-2): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 7 – 2 – 11 – 6

The Plays

• Win: 7 at 2-1

• Exacta Box: 2,7,11

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 3:18 P.M. ET; Aristides Stakes $275k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

• #6 SKELLY (7-5): Prime Win Player. Stamina to outlast the competition. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #3 GIANT MISCHIEF (4-1): Contender. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.

• #7 WORLD RECORD (3-1): Worth a look. Could wear these ones down late. Previous success in similar race types.

• #4 HAPPY IS A CHOICE (6-1): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 6 – 3 – 7 – 4

The Plays

• Win: 6 at 7-5

• Exacta: 6/3,4,7

• Trifecta: 6/3,4,7/3,4,7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 3:51 P.M. ET; Audubon Stakes $275k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 8 runners.

• #3 SCIPIO (7-2): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #8 EARLY ADOPTER (3-1): Major Player. Stamina to be in the mix late. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #4 MESERO (10-1): Major Player. Previous success in similar race types.

• #5 CHARLIE’S TO BLAME (5-1): Major Player. Race conditions fit this one well. Race shape gives this one an edge.

Selections: 3 – 8 – 4 – 5

The Plays

• Win: 3 at 3-1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 4:23 P.M. ET; Shawnee Stakes $275k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

• #1 WHERE’S MY RING (5-2): Best bet of the card. Stamina to outlast the competition. Race sets up perfectly. Bet today’s best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.

• #9 FREE LIKE A GIRL (4-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Rider is in the upper tier of the colony.

• #4 HOOSIER PHILLY (5-1): Worth a look. Potentially ready to hit a top number. Could jump up in the figures and be dangerous.

• #3 ROYAL SPA (10-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 1 – 9 – 4 – 3

The Plays

• Win: 1 at 8-5

• Exacta: 1/3,4,9

• Trifecta: 1/4,9 /3,4,9

• Pick 3 (races 8-10): 1/3,7,8/7,9

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 4:55 P.M. ET; Arlington Stakes $275k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 9 runners.

• #8 MERCANTE (3-1): Prime Win Player. Barn has been solid. Race sets up perfectly.

• #7 SILENT HEART (10-1): Contender. Good race flow for this runner. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #3 GIGANTE (10-1): Contender. The 93 speed rating is among the best in the field. Previous success in similar race types.

• #9 BRILLIANT BERTI (7-2): Contender. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 8 – 7 – 3 – 9

The Plays

• Win: 8 at 9-5

• Exacta: 8 /7,3,9

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 5:27 P.M. ET; Blame Stakes $275k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

• #7 MOST WANTED (7-2): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly.

• #9 POST TIME (3-1): Major Player. Should still be running strong in the closing stages. Speed figures match this group well.

• #8 BANISHING (9-2): Major Player. Could wear these ones down late. Previous success in similar race types.

• #6 HALL OF FAME (8-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 7 – 9 – 8 – 6

The Plays

• Win: 7 at 5-2

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 5:58 P.M. ET; Regret Stakes $275k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 11 runners.

• #5 CLASSIC Q (5-2): Prime Win Player. Race sets up perfectly.

• #8 FIONN (4-1): Contender. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Comes home strong.

• #4 FIXIN TO BEE (10-1): Contender. The price on this one is fair

• #6 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED (10-1): Contender. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance. Fast enough on paper to compete.

Selections: 5 – 8 – 4 – 6

The Plays

• Win: 5 at 2-1

• Exacta: 5 /4,8,6

• Trifecta: 5 /4,8,6 /2,4,6,7,8,11

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Sunday Analysis

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