The racing action from Churchill Downs on Saturday features the Lukas Classic Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!
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Churchill Downs Full Card Analysis
Churchill Downs: Lukas Classic Stakes (09/27/2025)
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Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1
Post Time: 12:45 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 6 runners.
- #3 D BIGALOW (7-2): Prime Win Player. Looks good based on the 82 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Stamina to outlast the competition.
- #6 PROUDLY HAILED (5-2): Contender. Looks fast enough off previous efforts. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #4 TROUBLE TIME (8-1): Fringe Contender. Pedigree fits in this spot. Previous success in similar race types.
- #5 SHOT GUN SHACK (3-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.
Selections: 3 – 6 – 4 – 5
The Plays
Win: #3 at 3-1
Exacta: 3/ 6,5
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2
Post Time: 1:16 PM ET; Claiming $55k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #4 TOP GUN TOMMY (2-1): Top pick. Stamina to outlast the competition. Race sets up perfectly.
- #5 AMERICAN OUTLAW (3-1): Major Player. Speed figures match this group well. Likely to get forward position.
- #6 J J’S JOKER (5-1): Major Player. May be able find the right setup. Saez puts this one in with a chance.
- #3 PRINCIP (5-2): Major Player. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Ortiz and Foley team up on this one.
Selections: 4 – 5 – 6 – 3
The Plays
Win: #4 at 5-2
Exacta Box: 4,5,3
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3
Post Time: 1:46 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #2 QUARRY (3-1): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly. Barn has been solid.
- #7 PROPS (4-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #4 OUTLAW EMPIRE (7-2): Major Player. Speed figs match up nicely. Morales puts this one in with a chance.
- #6 MR. J (8-1): Major Player. Trainer’s horses have been running. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 2 – 7 – 4 – 6
The Plays
Win: #2 at 5-2
Exacta Box: 2,7,4
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4
Post Time: 2:18 PM ET; Starter Allowance $83k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
- #3 GAMBLERS TAIL (3-1): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Should be able to work out a trip.
- #4 EXCEL CALCULATOR (4-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Should still be running strong in the closing stages.
- #2 LA HOULIGAN (5-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Should sit a good trip.
- #7 WHAT’S UP DOC (8-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.
Selections: 3 – 4 – 2 – 7
The Plays
Win: #3 at 5-2
Exacta: 3/ 4,2
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5
Post Time: 2:49 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 10 runners.
- #3 AMERICATHEGREAT (5-2): Top pick. Should be able to work out a trip. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
- #7 KENTUCKY BELLE (7-2): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #5 ATROPA (15-1): Fringe Contender. Hard to argue with the recent races. Previous success in similar race types.
- #10 INTERVIEW (8-1): Fringe Contender. Bloodlines fit this race. Race conditions fit this one well.
Selections: 3 – 7 – 5 – 10
The Plays
Win: #3 at 5-2
Exacta: 3/ 7,10
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6
Post Time: 3:21 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $75k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 14 runners.
- #14 MCFASTY (10-1): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #7 ELEOS (12-1): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
- #3 EMANCIPATION (5-1): Major Player. Previous success in similar race types. Should find today’s group a bit softer than the last race.
- #12 BLUE MOUNTAINS (5-1): Major Player. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Ortiz and Mccarthy team up on this one.
Selections: 14 – 7 – 3 – 12
The Plays
Win: #14 at 5-1
Trifecta: 14/ 3,12/ 3,7,12
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7
Post Time: 3:54 PM ET; Allowance $134k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 11 runners.
Longshot Play of the Day
- #11 DROP THE HAMMER (8-1): Longshot play of the day. Barn has been solid. Proven competitor at this configuration. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.
- #2 GOLDEN SUNSHINE (6-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
- #5 SCATTITUDE (9-2): Major Player. Has experience at this level. Could wear these ones down late.
- #7 SHE’S GOT WILL (8-1): Major Player. Recent races are solid. Fast enough on paper to compete.
Selections: 11 – 2 – 5 – 7
The Plays
Win: #11 at 5-1
Trifecta: 11/ 2,5/ 2,5,7
Daily Double (races 7-8): #11,2,5,7 with #1
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8
Post Time: 4:26 PM ET; Ack Ack Stakes $400k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.
Best Bet of the Card
- #1 MOST WANTED (6-5): Best bet of the card. Stamina to outlast the competition. Fits well with this group. Bet today’s best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
- #5 TUMBARUMBA (4-1): Major Player. Running well of late. Good race flow for this runner.
- #6 INDISPENSABLE (3-1): Major Player. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish. The 103 speed rating is among the best in the field.
- #2 WILL TAKE IT (7-2): Contender. Recent races are solid. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 1 – 5 – 6 – 2
The Plays
Win: #1 at 1-1
Exacta: 1/ 5,6
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9
Post Time: 4:58 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $141k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.
- #10 STANDOUTSENSATION (7-2): Top pick. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Amoss. Strong early pace figs.
- #3 PIGALLE (4-1): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Seems to be up against the right competition.
- #9 PERFECT SHOT (3-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Not likely to be short in the stretch.
- #5 CAT’S CAVE (10-1): Major Player. Competitive enough in recent efforts.
Selections: 10 – 3 – 9 – 5
The Plays
Win: #10 at 5-2
Exacta Box: 10,3,9
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10
Post Time: 5:29 PM ET; Lukas Classic Stakes $500k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.
- #7 BANISHING (3-1): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration.
- #5 MYSTIK DAN (5-2): Major Player. Running well of late. Should take a liking to the race shape.
- #2 HIT SHOW (7-2): Major Player. Should sit a good trip.
- #1 WILLY D’S (6-1): Major Player. Recent races are solid. Trainer’s horses have been running.
Selections: 7 – 5 – 2 – 1
The Plays
Win: #7 at 5-2
Exacta Box: 7,5,2
Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11
Post Time: 6:01 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.
- #3 REVEL TOAST (5-2): Prime Win Player. Looks good based on the 80 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Strong early pace figs.
- #11 NEW DIVA (5-1): Contender. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
- #5 TACTICAL COMMAND (8-1): Contender. Potentially ready to hit a top number. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
- #8 FROSTY FOR EVER (12-1): Fringe Contender. Could be griding down the competition late. Saez and Blair team up on this one.
Selections: 3 – 11 – 5 – 8
The Plays
Win: #3 at 3-1
Exacta: 3/ 11,5
Betting News Horse Racing Coverage
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Sunday Analysis
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