Following yet another Scottie Scheffler victory – last week’s coming at the BMW Championship – we now head to the PGA Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, where the top 30 players will battle for the title and a $10 million prize.
East Lake Golf Club has served as the permanent host of the Tour Championship since 2004. The Donald Ross design underwent a major renovation in 2023, led by architect Andrew Green, to restore features that better reflected Ross’ original vision. Among the notable changes were adjustments to the greens, and the course now plays as a par 70 stretched to 7,440 yards.
Key stats to target this week include SG: Tee-to-Green, Approach, Putting, Par-4 Scoring, Good Drives Percentage, Scrambling, and Approach shots from 200+ yards, along with Course History and Course Comps.
Let’s get into my Tour Championship predictions and picks for the final stop of the PGA Tour season.
You can find odds for the entire PGA postseason at the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
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Odds to Win the 2025 Tour Championship
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
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Scottie Scheffler (+185)
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Rory McIlroy (+800)
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Tommy Fleetwood (+1200)
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Ludvig Åberg (+1800)
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Russell Henley (+1800)
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Viktor Hovland (+2200)
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Collin Morikawa (+2500)
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Sam Burns (+2800)
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Cameron Young (+2800)
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Justin Thomas (+3500)
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JJ Spaun (+3500)
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Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)
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Maverick McNealy (+4000)
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Patrick Cantlay (+4000)
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Robert MacIntyre (+4500)
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Sepp Straka (+4500)
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Ben Griffin (+4500)
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Keegan Bradley (+5000)
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Corey Conners (+5500)
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Harry Hall (+5500)
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Harris English (+6000)
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Akshay Bhatia (+6500)
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Justin Rose (+7000)
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Christopher Gotterup (+7000)
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Shane Lowry (+7500)
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Brian Harman (+8000)
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Sungjae Im (+9000)
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Jacob Bridgeman (+12500)
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Nick Taylor (+13500)
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Andrew Novak (+22500)
Tour Championship Predictions and Picks
Last Week’s Results
While we missed on an outright winner, we came through in the top-finishes department again, cashing three of our five plays:
Ludvig Aberg Top 10 (+175)
Kurt Kitayama Top 20 (+110)
Harry Hall Top 20 (+110)
Let’s aim to keep making profit in the top-finishes market while looking to hit an outright winner to cap off the season.
Tommy Fleetwood
To Win (14/1) | Top 10 (-135)
Outright odds via Bovada & Top 10 odds via BetOnline
I believe this is the first time I’ve dished out a play on Tommy Fleetwood this season. It’s tough to back someone outright who has yet to notch a PGA Tour victory despite countless close calls. But what better stage than the Tour Championship to finally break through? That would be quite the story – Fleetwood earning his first Tour win at East Lake.
While he hasn’t gotten over the hump, it shouldn’t shock anyone if he does. Outside of letting a couple slip away, Fleetwood has been playing outstanding golf. He’s posted seven top-10 finishes this year, including a T-3 and T-4 over the first two rounds of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Over his last 32 rounds against this week’s competition, Fleetwood ranks 2nd in SG: Total, 2nd in SG: Tee-to-Green, 3rd in Driving Accuracy, 6th in SG: Approach, and 7th in SG: Putting. For the season, he’s also 8th in Par-4 Scoring Average and 20th in Scrambling.
He’s built to contend. The only question is whether he can overcome the Sunday mental lapses. We’ll have to wait and see, but this week I’m willing to invest in him. The storyline feels like it’s set up perfectly.
Russell Henley
To Win (22/1) | Top 10 (-110)
Outright odds via Bovada & Top 10 odds via BetOnline
Russell Henley has now finished inside the top 20 in six straight starts. But with this week’s field narrowed to just 30 golfers, the bar is set higher for the 36-year-old.
There’s no reason he can’t come out on top when all is said and done.
There’s no reason he can’t rise to the occasion. Not only has Henley performed well at East Lake in recent years – T-14 in 2023 and T-4 in 2024 – but he’s been sharp all season. He ranks 8th in Par-4 Scoring, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 12th in Good Drive Percentage, 16th in Scrambling, and 30th in Approach shots from 200+ yards, all key factors for success here.
Digging deeper, over his last 32 rounds Henley sits 4th in SG: T2G and 10th in SG: APP among this week’s field. I’m expecting him to close out a strong season with another competitive finish.
J.J. Spaun
To Win (35/1) | Top 10 (+135)
Odds via BetOnline
What a year it’s been for J.J. Spaun – five top-five finishes, highlighted by a Major title at the U.S. Open. If there’s anyone with the guts to go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler this week, Spaun fits the bill.
Coming in 3rd in SG: T2G, 5th in SG: TOT, and 9th in SG: APP, Spaun’s game is well-rounded. It feels like we’re getting solid value on a player who refuses to go down without a fight, and I’m willing to back that type of competitor on the season’s biggest stage.
Sepp Straka
To Win (50/1) | Top 10 (+165)
Odds via BetOnline
Sepp Straka is a golfer I’ve backed several times this season, but I haven’t quite timed him right. Hopefully that changes this week.
Across 12 rounds at East Lake, Straka owns a 1.39 True Strokes Gained mark and also grades out well in Total Strokes Gained Adjustment for Course Comps.
He brings a precise driver (5th in Driving Accuracy), a reliable putter (11th in SG: PUTT), and a steady approach game (16th in SG: APP). He also ranks 9th in Bogey Avoidance and 23rd in Par-4 Scoring this season.
He withdrew from the BMW Championship last week due to family reasons, but finished T-17 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship the week prior. With two outright wins already this season, he’s in a strong position to make it three if his game holds true.
Shane Lowry
Top 10 (+275)
Odds via BetOnline
Let’s round out the card with a bit of a long shot on the Irishman, Shane Lowry. I’m not fully convinced he can win this tournament, but I do think he can hang near the top.
Over his last 32 rounds, he ranks 4th in SG: APP and 18th in SG: T2G. He also played well here last year, finishing T-9 with a +2.15 True SG mark.
The back half of this season hasn’t been his best, but in a limited field with high stakes, I can envision him contending for all four days.
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