Ryder Cup Preview, Predictions and Bets: Can Team USA Get Back On Top?

Keegan Bradley at Ryder Cup

Ryder Cup Preview

The Ryder Cup returns this week for its 45th edition, as the always challenging Bethpage Black on Long Island, New York, hosts the event for the first time. 

The par-70, 7,352-yard layout has previously staged U.S. Opens and a PGA Championship, but never golf’s most heated team competition. From Friday through Sunday, Team USA and Team Europe will battle it out in foursomes, four-ball, and singles matches to decide who reaches the 14.5 points needed to claim the cup.

Keegan Bradley leads a U.S. squad listed around -150 favorites, featuring four rookies and several fresh faces in team play. Luke Donald’s European side, priced at +170, returns nearly its entire 2023 roster after dominating 16.5-11.5 in Rome. With Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose anchoring a more seasoned group, Europe aims to break the five-event streak of home-team winners and capture its first road victory since the “Miracle at Medinah” in 2012.

For a full breakdown of the Ryder Cup odds and tournament information, check out Eddie Griffin’s article with an extensive preview of everything at Bethpage Black!

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Can Team USA reclaim the Ryder Cup on home turf?

Ryder Cup Format & Schedule

The Ryder Cup spans three days with 28 total matches, each worth one point. If a match is tied (or halved), both sides earn a half point. The first team to 14.5 points wins the cup. If the competition ends 14–14, Europe would retain as the defending champion.

Friday & Saturday – Foursomes and Four-Balls

Each day features two sessions with four matches in each format, adding up to 16 matches over the first two days.

  • Morning session: Foursomes (alternate shot) – Two-player teams from each side alternate shots with the same ball until the hole is completed. 
  • Afternoon session: Four-ball (better ball) – Each player plays their own ball, and the team’s lower score counts for the hole.

Sunday – Singles

The final day is where all 24 players compete. Every U.S. golfer is paired against a European opponent in 12 head-to-head singles matches. Each match carries one point, creating the potential for big swings in momentum.

Ryder Cup Bets

We might as well begin with the outright winner market. Most shops are dealing the U.S. squad around -150 or higher, while Europe sits in the +160 to +170 range.

That’s a steep price considering Europe is, arguably, the more talented team right now. Their guys are playing a bit better as of late, have the experience, and boast the kind of camaraderie that often proves decisive in this format.

The Americans do have their edges: motivation to bounce back after the debacle in Rome, home-field advantage on one of the toughest tracks in the world, and what feels like a steadying hand in captain Keegan Bradley. The fact that he passed on playing to lead the team says a lot about his approach.

The outright price surrounding -150 is just too steep, though. I believe there’s a better way to approach a bet on the U.S. 

Still, I can’t justify laying -150 on the outright. Europe is too good, and I don’t see either side running away with it. More likely, the U.S. will come out hot on Friday – as home teams usually do – but Europe’s depth and experience should keep this close into the weekend.

In the end, though, the intangibles and the Bethpage crowd tilt me toward the Americans squeaking it out. Betting the spread or winning margin looks like the smarter investment. The U.S. at -1 or -1.5 is around -110, and a 1–3 point victory at +350 is also attractive. I’ll stick with the safer route and lay the -1 at -110.

The other wager I’m targeting revolves around the first-day foursomes session. Since 2006, home teams own a ridiculous 45-16-11 record in this format. Over the last four Ryder Cups, the cumulative margin for the home side in foursomes is 24.5–7.5.

I’m usually not the biggest trends guy, so I don’t like blindly betting something just because it’s happened before. But this one’s hard to ignore. The opening session has consistently been a springboard for the home side, and the Bethpage crowd should only amplify that edge. If the Americans don’t take advantage here, they could spell trouble later. I trust Bradley to roll out the right pairings and for the U.S. to spark early momentum.

Plays:

  • Team USA -1 Outright (-110)
  • Team USA Day 1 Foursomes Winner (+145)

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