The PGA Tour’s postseason begins this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, marking the fourth straight year the course hosts the event.
The Tour’s top-70 players – with the exception of Rory McIlroy, who chose to sit out this week – have qualified for this first leg of the playoffs. The top 50 will advance to the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club, and then the top 30 move on to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club to compete for the FedEx Cup.
Let’s dive into my FedEx St. Jude Championship predictions and picks for the first round of PGA Tour postseason play.
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Odds to Win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
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Scottie Scheffler (+315)
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Xander Schauffele (+1600)
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Viktor Hovland (+2500)
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Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500)
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Russell Henley (+2500)
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Tommy Fleetwood (+2800)
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Ludvig Åberg (+3000)
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Aaron Rai (+3300)
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Collin Morikawa (+3300)
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Chris Gotterup (+3300)
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Justin Thomas (+3500)
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Sam Burns (+3500)
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Cameron Young (+3500)
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Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)
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Corey Conners (+4000)
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Patrick Cantlay (+4500)
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Harris English (+4500)
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Sepp Straka (+4500)
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Ben Griffin (+5000)
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Daniel Berger (+5000)
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Wyndham Clark (+5000)
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Jordan Spieth (+5000)
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Keegan Bradley (+5500)
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Robert MacIntyre (+5500)
FedEx St. Jude Championship Course Breakdown
Located in Memphis, Tennessee, TPC Southwind is a Par 70 stretching just over 7,200 yards. It features 12 Par 4s, four Par 3s, and just two Par 5s. The course is known for its narrow fairways, water hazards, doglegs, and small Bermudagrass greens.
Accuracy off the tee, hitting these smaller greens in regulation, and scrambling effectively when you miss are all critical to success here.
Key stats I’m aligning my handicap with features SG: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, SG: Putting, Driving Accuracy, GIR%, Scrambling, Ball Striking, and Par 4 Scoring. Course comps include Waialae Country Club (Sony Open), Pebble Beach, and Innisbrook Resort (Valspar Championship).
FedEx St. Jude Championship Prediction and Picks
Russell Henley
To win (25/1) | Top 20 (+100)
Odds via BetOnline
The 36-year-old has been on fire this season, posting nine top-10 finishes, including a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Can he keep the momentum going? In his last four starts, Henley has notched two top 10s, a T-5, and a T-2.
He’s also shown well on comparable courses, finishing T-5 at Pebble Beach and T-10 at Waialae Country Club (Sony Open).
Statistically, Henley’s form checks out: over his last 32 rounds, he ranks third in SG: Tee to Green, fifth in SG: Approach, and eighth in Driving Accuracy. For the season, he’s 14th in Par 4 Scoring and 18th in Greens in Regulation Percentage.
I’m expecting another strong showing from Henley this week.
Viktor Hovland
To win (28/1) | Top 20 (-110)
Odds via BetOnline
It’s been a bit of an up-and-down season for Viktor Hovland, but there are still plenty of highlights – most notably an outright win at the Valspar Championship, a comp course to TPC Southwind, and a third-place finish at the U.S. Open.
I believe he’ll add to his stat sheet in postseason play, starting this week in Memphis.
Hovland has a solid track record at TPC Southwind: T-2 in 2024, T-13 in 2023, and T-20 in 2022. His recent form also suggests another strong showing: over his last 32 rounds, he ranks second in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Tee to Green.
The concern is his putting, which has been inconsistent all season. But after a couple weeks off, Hovland could return refreshed on the greens and ready to contend.
Patrick Cantlay
To win (45/1) | Top 20 (+100)
Odds via BetOnline
With the Ryder Cup approaching, all eyes are on players fighting to lock in their spot – and Patrick Cantlay is firmly in that mix.
He’s posted three top-5 finishes this season, but is still chasing his first win. Could this be the week? He’s been close at TPC Southwind in the past, finishing second in 2023 and T-12 in 2024.
If Cantlay can consistently find fairways, his precision on approach will set him apart. He ranks 11th in GIR% and second in Par 4 Scoring this season.
We’ve seen Cantlay rise to the occasion before, and I’m betting him to do it again.
Sepp Straka
To win (45/1) | Top 20 (+120)
Odds via BetOnline
The Austrian has been a joy to watch this season, racking up two wins and eight top-10 finishes.
Over his last 32 rounds, Straka ranks seventh in Driving Accuracy, 11th in SG: APP, 15th in SG: T2G, and 24th in SG: PUTT. He’s also eighth in GIR% this year. Overall, his skillset blends extremely well with TPC Southwind.
What really stands out is the value we’re getting on his outright and top-20 odds. Straka has consistently proven he can hang with the best, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again in Memphis.
Ben Griffin
To win (50/1) | Top 20 (+120)
Odds via BetOnline
How about a player who ranks third in SG: PUTT, and ninth in both SG: APP and T2G over his past 32 rounds? Oh, and also happens to rank 23rd in Par 4 Scoring and 25th in GIR% this season. Seems enticing, eh?
That player is Ben Griffin – the 29-year-old American who’s put together seven top-10 finishes, including an outright win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
While on paper he’s seemingly proved enough to warrant a spot on the Ryder Cup team, it’s imperative he continues to play well throughout the postseason to guarantee it. Last week, he finished T-11 at the Wyndham Championship, and I believe he’ll carry that momentum into the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Nick Taylor
Top 20 (+200)
Odds via BetOnline
We can’t neglect Nick Taylor this week. His 100/1 odds to win are certainly appealing, but the real value lies in his chances to finish inside the top 20.
Taylor brings a strong flat stick (18th in SG: PUTT), an accurate driver (11th), and excellent precision on approach (15th in SG: APP).
Earlier this season, he won at a similar course – Waialae Country Club in Hawaii, after defeating Nico Echavarria in a playoff. He’ll come into this week with a bit more motivation after missing the cut at The Open. Prior to that, he had a five-tournament streak of T-23 finishes or better, which includes a fourth-place result at the Memorial Tournament.
Don’t sleep on Nick Taylor this postseason.
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