Following Justin Rose’s thrilling playoff win in the postseason opener, the PGA Tour heads to Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland, for the BMW Championship.
This is the course’s second time hosting the event since 2021, but with notable changes. Back in ‘21, heavy rain turned it into a birdie fest – seven players finished better than 20-under on the shorter par-72 layout. Now it’s a par 70 stretched to 7,601 yards, with only light rain expected. Scoring opportunities will still be there, and the setup should still favor bombers among the remaining top 49 players (Sepp Straka withdrew for family reasons).
Key stats I’m weighing include Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Off the Tee, Approach, Putting (Bentgrass), and Birdie or Better Percentage, along with course comp history.
Let’s dive into my BMW Championship predictions and picks for the second round of PGA Tour postseason play.
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Odds to Win the 2025 BMW Championship
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
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Scottie Scheffler (+285)
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Rory McIlroy (+850)
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Ludvig Åberg (+1800)
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Xander Schauffele (+1800)
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Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
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Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
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Cameron Young (+2500)
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Russell Henley (+3500)
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Justin Thomas (+3500)
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Sam Burns (+3500)
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J.J. Spaun (+3500)
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Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)
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Collin Morikawa (+4000)
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Viktor Hovland (+4000)
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Kurt Kitayama (+4000)
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Ben Griffin (+4500)
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Matt Fitzpatrick (+4500)
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Chris Gotterup (+4500)
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Keegan Bradley (+5000)
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Akshay Bhatia (+5500)
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Corey Conners (+6000)
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Maverick McNealy (+6000)
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Justin Rose (+6000)
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Robert MacIntyre (+6500)
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Harris English (+6500)
BMW Championship Predictions and Picks
Last Week’s Results
We didn’t hit an outright winner, but we did cash four of our six top-20s:
Russell Henley Top 20 Finish (+100)
Patrick Cantlay Top 20 Finish (+100)
Sepp Straka Top 20 Finish (+120)
Ben Griffin Top 20 Finish (+120)
Let’s look for more of the same, and hopefully an outright winner this time around.
Ludvig Aberg
To win (20/1) | Top 10 (+175)
Odds via Bovada
Following a T-9 finish last week, the 25-year-old Swede looks poised for another strong showing. Over his last 32 rounds, he ranks sixth in Driving Distance and fourth in SG: Off the Tee among the 49 remaining contenders, while sitting 27th in Birdie or Better Percentage for the season.
We’ve been waiting for another breakthrough from Aberg since his win at The Genesis Invitational in February. His best result since then was a seventh-place finish at The Masters, but recent form suggests he may be turning a corner and this seems like a great opportunity to back him.
Xander Schauffele
To Win (22/1) | Top 10 (+150)
Odds via Bovada
Xander Schauffele has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last three BMW Championship starts and there’s no reason he can’t make it four straight.
He ranks second in Driving Distance, sixth in SG: T2G, and 10th in SG: OTT. If he can manage to stay accurate with the driver, he’ll set up plenty of quality approach looks – an area where he’s 15th in SG: APP over his last 32 rounds.
Still chasing his first win of 2025, Schauffele’s well-rounded game makes Caves Valley a strong venue for him to come out on top.
Kurt Kitayama
To Win (40/1) | Top 20 (+110)
Odds via BetOnline
It feels like Kurt Kitayama is flying under the radar this week, which is unusual given the limited field – but I see value in him.
Over his last 32 rounds, he ranks 3rd in SG: Tee to Green, 5th in both SG: Approach and Driving Distance, and sits 3rd on the season in Birdie or Better Percentage. He’s also shown strong results on comparable courses.
In his last five starts, Kitayama has a win at the 3M Open, a T-5 at the John Deere Classic, a T-9 last week, and a T-14 at the Barracuda Championship, with his lowest finish being a T-31 at the Wyndham.
Kitayama is heating up at the perfect time, and I’m ready to ride his wave of momentum.
Chris Gotterup
To Win (45/1) | Top 20 (-110)
Odds via BetOnline
The 26-year-old is still battling for a spot on the USA Ryder Cup roster. Momentum was building after his win at the Genesis Scottish Open, followed by a third-place finish at The Open and a T-10 at the 3M Open – but last week’s T-54 added a bit of pressure.
On paper there shouldn’t be too much reason to worry. Gotterup leads the field in SG: OTT and ranks third in Driving Distance, along with strong results on correlated courses. If his irons and putter cooperate, his price makes him an appealing play.
Harry Hall
Top 20 (+110)
Odds via BetOnline
I’m targeting a Top-20 finish for Harry Hall at the BMW Championship. He’s got the game to contend, but likely not enough firepower to push for the top spot.
While he lacks efficiency off the tee, Hall’s short game is elite, ranking 1st in SG: PUTT and lifting him to 7th in SG: TOT over his last 32 rounds. Furthermore, he’s second in Birdie or Better Percentage this season.
It’s been a steady year with only three missed cuts and 15 finishes of T-28 or better. In this trimmed-down field, a Top 20 is well within reach.
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