Last week, the Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship race took a dramatic turn at the Dutch Grand Prix. While running second behind McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri late in the race, Lando Norris’s engine failed. As a result, he came away with zero points and had to watch Piastri win for the seventh time this season.
The combination of results took Piastri from nine points clear of his teammate to 34 entering today’s Italian Grand Prix, the 16th race of the 2025 F1 season.
In third, now 109 points behind Piastri, is four-time defending world champion Max Verstappen, who benefited from Norris’s misfortune by moving up to second at his home race.
Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship Standings (Through 15 of 24 Races)
- 1. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – 309
- 2. Lando Norris (McLaren) – 275
- 3. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 205
- 4. George Russell (Mercedes) – 184
- 5. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – 151
- 6. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) – 109
- 7. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) – 64
- 8. Alexander Albon (Williams) – 64
- 9. Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber) – 37
- 10. Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls) – 37
With nine races left, Verstappen’s hopes of a fifth consecutive title are rather slim due to McLaren’s double dominance this season.
Can he somehow revive those hopes today at Monza? He beat out Norris and Piastri for pole, his first since the British Grand Prix and his fifth of the season.
Only one of those first four poles was converted into a victory, which came at the Japanese Grand Prix, the third race of the season. But if he is to stay on the fringes of the Formula 1 title race into October, he needs to finish where he will start at Monza, where he won in 2022 and 2023.
Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Odds
- Lando Norris +160
- Max Verstappen +200
- Oscar Piastri +275
- Charles Leclerc +1600
- George Russell +4000
- Lewis Hamilton +8000
- Kimi Antonelli +12500
- Yuki Tsunoda +25000
- Fernando Alonso +25000
- Gabriel Bortoleto +50000
- Ollie Bearman +50000
- Carlos Sainz Jr. +50000
- Alexander Albon +50000
- Nico Hulkenberg +50000
- Lance Stroll +100000
- Esteban Ocon +100000
- Isack Hadjar +100000
- Pierre Gasly +150000
- Franco Colapinto +150000
- Liam Lawson +150000
Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Predictions and Picks
Lewis Hamilton to finish in the top six (-120 at Lucky Rebel)
Even on the few occasions things have gone right this season for the winningest driver in Formula 1 history, there has been a “but” lingering close by.
In qualifying, Hamilton came in a respectable fifth, which would have otherwise seen him start in the front three rows for just the sixth time all season. Instead, he will start 10th after receiving a five-place grid penalty for an infraction at the Dutch Grand Prix, where he finished dead last after crashing out 22 laps in.
Only four times this season has Hamilton been able to improve upon his starting position by four or more places, so there shouldn’t be any lofty expectations of him making a hard charge for a podium.
But a decent qualifying run was a step in the right direction when there have been so few positives for him thus far with Ferrari. A top-six finish is certainly within reasonable reach, and this is decent value for that outcome.
Lando Norris to win the Italian Grand Prix (+160 at BetOnline)
As disappointing as his engine failure at the Dutch Grand Prix would have been, it is worth noting that Norris has won three of the last five races, so it’s not all doom and gloom for him right now.
It’s also worth noting that while his first three wins this season came from pole, his last two wins, at the British Grand Prix and Hungarian Grand Prix, respectively, did not. So, if you let anything dissuade you from backing Norris today, don’t let it be his starting position.
Ultimately, he and Piastri have the two best cars on the grid, and that won’t leave too many wins for others this season, including the four-time defending Formula 1 world champion.
While Piastri has had the upper hand in the title race for the majority of the season, Norris has remained within striking distance by picking up timely wins. like he did in Monaco, Austria, and Hungary. Look for him to come through today and put at least a slight dent into his deficit.
Lance Stroll to finish in the top 10 (+500 at Everygame)
After failing to make it out of Q1, Stroll will start 16th. But this is not an unfamiliar position for him, as he started in the back half of the grid in all but two of the first 15 races this season.
However, Stroll has put together a decent little run of results in recent races. After recording only two points finishes in his first 10 races this season, Stroll has three points finishes in four races, coming in seventh in Belgium, Hungary, and at the Dutch Grand Prix last weekend, coming from last on the grid to attain that most recent result.
These are long odds, but they are well worth a little sprinkle when Stroll seems to have found himself a little form in the second half of the season. Can it continue?
Other F1 Betting Content
In addition to predictions and expert picks for the Hungarian Grand Prix and other upcoming F1 races, you can keep up with the latest Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship odds at Betting News.
Are you new to betting on Formula 1? Check out our F1 betting guide. Also, we have other sports betting guides that can be handy for betting on Formula 1 odds, including our guide to moneyline bets, our futures bets guide, and our guide to prop bets.