With eight races remaining in the 2025 Formula 1 season, it still looks highly probable that Max Verstappen will not win a fifth consecutive World Drivers’ Championship title.
But he is not giving up his crown without a fight, and after a win at the Italian Grand Prix two weeks ago, he is on pole for and favored to win Sunday’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
After returning from F1’s summer break with a runner-up finish at the Dutch Grand Prix, Verstappen snapped an eight-race winless run with a resounding victory at Monza two weeks ago, his first win since the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix in May.
The four-time defending champion remains 94 points behind World Drivers’ Championship leader Oscar Piastri, but after finishing ahead of Lando Norris in consecutive races, Verstappen is only 63 points behind his good friend for second.
Much still must happen for the stretch run to be meaningful for Verstappen from a championship standpoint. But one weird race could serve to significantly tighten up the title race, and one such weird race may be on tap in Baku.
Verstappen may have had a nice run in qualifying, but he was the exception among the top drivers. Piastri crashed in Q3 before putting in a time and will start ninth, while Norris could only land in seventh.
Both Red Bulls will start in the top six of a Formula 1 race for the first time since last year’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix, as Yuki Tsunoda qualified sixth. Both Mercedes drivers will also start in the top six, with Kimi Antonelli fourth and George Russell fifth.
With his rivals starting well back, top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline have Verstappen as a firm favorite to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds
- Max Verstappen -215
- Lando Norris +600
- Oscar Piastri +850
- George Russell +1600
- Charles Leclerc +3300
- Kimi Antonelli +4000
- Carlos Sainz Jr. +4000
- Lewis Hamilton +6600
- Liam Lawson +8000
- Yuki Tsunoda +15000
- Fernando Alonso +25000
- Isack Hadjar +25000
- Lance Stroll +100000
- Ollie Bearman +100000
- Alexander Albon +100000
- Nico Hulkenberg +100000
- Gabriel Bortoleto +100000
- Esteban Ocon +150000
- Pierre Gasly +200000
- Franco Colapinto +200000
Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictions and Picks
Verstappen should win this race, but there is no betting value in backing him to do so unless you turn to props, and this particular race is not one to do that, in my view. So, for this week’s Formula 1 picks, we are focusing on other drivers, all of whom offer value at plus odds.
George Russell to Finish in the Top Three (+175 at BetOnline)
Since moving from Williams to Mercedes in 2022, Russell has finished third at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix twice, in 2022 and 2024.
As it happens, both of those occurrences happened when he started the race fifth, where he will start this year’s race in Baku.
Is that a good omen for how he will fare? It is not likely that both Sainz and Lawson will remain in their lofty positions, while Antonelli has finished in the top six just once in his last 10 races.
The McLarens might throw a wrench into this if they get their act together for the race, but taking Russell to make the podium at these odds is well worth it when it is well within his reach.
Fernando Alonso to Finish in the Top 10 (+110 at Lucky Rebel)
At Monza, Alonso’s race ended on lap 25 due to a suspension failure, and he came in 19th.
But prior to that unfortunate result, he had finished in the points in six of seven races, missing out only at the Belgian Grand Prix.
There are plenty of Formula 1 enthusiasts who would love to see Alonso’s ceiling be more than a points finish, but for betting purposes, even sneaking into 10th would be outstanding.
In his first two seasons back in Formula 1, Alonso finished in the points a dozen times after starting outside the top 10. In the last two and two-thirds seasons, that has happened only twice (and only once this season in eight instances, at the Austrian Grand Prix, where he started 11th and finished seventh).
But even though he will start 11th, his recent results, the odds, and the Azerbaijan GP’s penchant for unpredictability make this a worthwhile option.
Gabriel Bortoleto to Finish in the Top 10 (+225 at Everygame)
Bortoleto will start 13th, but this is also a rather worthwhile option given his recent results, the odds, and the twists and turns that could happen during the 51 laps around the Baku City Circuit.
Bortoleto has finished in the points four times in his last six races, including an eighth-place finish in the Italian Grand Prix.
To date, his best finish when starting outside the top 10 is a 12th-place finish after starting 12th in the Spanish Grand Prix. But in an unpredictable race and with the young Brazilian clearly starting to find his footing in Formula 1, I’m all over these odds.
Other F1 Betting Content
In addition to predictions and expert picks for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix and other upcoming F1 races, you can keep up with the latest Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship odds at Betting News.
Are you new to betting on Formula 1? Check out our F1 betting guide. Also, we have other sports betting guides that can be handy for betting on Formula 1 odds, including our guide to moneyline bets, our futures bets guide, and our guide to prop bets.