Twenty-three races down, one to go. The 2025 Formula 1 season has been full of far more twists than anyone may have expected, and there may still be a few yet to come at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, which will play host to a title decider for the first time since 2021.
The last time the F1 title went down to the season finale, a controversial decision saw Lewis Hamilton be denied a fifth consecutive (and record-breaking eighth) World Drivers’ Championship title, as Max Verstappen zoomed by him to claim his first.
Four years later, Verstappen finds himself perhaps needing the chips to once again fall in his direction to not see his own drive for five come to an end at the hands of a first-time Formula 1 champion.
That he even still has a chance at this point is because a lot of chips have fallen his way already. For most of the season, a McLaren double looked like a near-certainty.
In fact, even after Verstappen started to close the gap, the odds were unfavorable, especially after Lando Norris won the Sao Paulo Grand Prix last month.
Then came the double DQ in Las Vegas due to excessive plank wear, which took Norris from needing a decent Qatar Grand Prix finish to clinch the title to potentially having to sweat out the final two races. And then came a bungled pit strategy in Qatar that all but handed Verstappen another vital victory and took the title fight to the finale.
Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship Standings
- 1. Lando Norris – 408 (seven wins)
- 2. Max Verstappen – 396 (seven wins)
- 3. Oscar Piastri – 392 (seven wins)
Even with the way the past two weeks played out, a lot still must happen for Verstappen to complete a triple-digit comeback and win his fifth straight title.
He upheld his end of the deal by claiming pole at Yas Marina, but Norris slots in second and Piastri third.
If Norris finishes second or third, he will still come away with the title, even if Verstappen crosses the line first, as he is favored to do by BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks.
Odds to Win the Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
- Max Verstappen -265
- Lando Norris +350
- Oscar Piastri +900
- George Russell +3300
- Charles Leclerc +8000
- Lewis Hamilton +25000
- Kimi Antonelli +25000
- Fernando Alonso +25000
- Gabriel Bortoleto +50000
- Yuki Tsunoda +100000
- Esteban Ocon +100000
- Ollie Bearman +100000
- Isack Hadjar +100000
- Carlos Sainz Jr. +100000
- Lance Stroll +200000
- Franco Colapinto +200000
- Liam Lawson +200000
- Alexander Albon +200000
- Nico Hulkenberg +200000
- Pierre Gasly +250000
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Predictions and Picks
So, who is going to emerge as the victor from this three-way title fight?
Based on what “should” occur, Norris is in a favorable spot to clinch the championship even if Verstappen wins. It seems unlikely that Piastri would put his teammate at risk to benefit himself in this instance, and there are not many drivers who may want to thrust themselves into a controversy, even unintentionally (spare a thought for Nicholas Latifi).
But given the way that things played out in Las Vegas and Lusail, it is hard to envision a straightforward finale with no drama. We may not see something like the Senna vs. Prost inc(h)idents in the 1989 and 1990 editions of the Japanese Grand Prix, but were one of the three championship contenders to be eliminated in the first corner, it should surprise no one.
Ultimately, because so much does have to happen for Norris to lose out, I think he will end up where he needs to be, whether that is first, second, or third.
For betting purposes, I’d rather set my money on fire than bet on either Verstappen, Norris, or Piastri.
But if you are looking for value as we close the curtain on the 2025 Formula 1 season, look no further than a points finish for Carlos Sainz Jr.
Sainz is finishing the season strong, having followed up a fifth-place finish in Las Vegas with a third-place finish behind Verstappen and Piastri in Qatar.
He only qualified 12th for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but at +125 odds (at both BetOnline and Lucky Rebel), I quite like this play, especially when things might well get a little nutty in this one and those with the coolest heads may find themselves in positive positions at the end.
Other F1 Betting Content
In addition to predictions and expert picks for the Singapore Grand Prix and other upcoming F1 races, you can keep up with the latest Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship odds at Betting News.
Are you new to betting on Formula 1? Check out our F1 betting guide. Also, we have other sports betting guides that can be handy for betting on Formula 1 odds, including our guide to moneyline bets, our futures bets guide, and our guide to prop bets.