Two weeks ago, the Saskatchewan Roughriders suffered a surprising home loss to the Montreal Alouettes, who went into Mosaic Stadium and dominated in a 48-31 victory. Still, the Roughriders are on the verge of their first West Division title since 2019 and will move even closer with a road win vs. the Edmonton Elks this evening at Commonwealth Stadium (7:00 p.m. ET, CFL+).
The Roughriders (10-3) enter today’s game four points clear of the Calgary Stampeders (8-6), who dropped their third straight game last night at Montreal, with the BC Lions at 8-7 after edging the Toronto Argonauts last night.
A win will put the Riders on the cusp of just their third division title in almost 50 years, with games remaining against the Redblacks (away), Argonauts (home), Blue Bombers (away), and Lions (home).
The Elks (5-9), meanwhile, are nearly at the point of no return, following back-to-back road losses and losses in three of their last four games.
Top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline have the Roughriders as a favorite by a shade more than a field goal, but will Saskatchewan get it done in Edmonton? Read on for our Roughriders vs. Elks best bets.
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Elks Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | -3.5 (-117) | -210 | Over 54.5 (-110) |
| Montreal Alouettes | +3.5 (-103) | +180 | Under 54.5 (-110) |
Roughriders vs. Elks Betting Trends
- The Roughriders are 5-1 SU and ATS on the road this season, including 3-1 SU and ATS as a road favorite.
- Saskatchewan is 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS overall as a favorite this season.
- The under is 4-2 in the Roughriders’ road games this season.
- In Saskatchewan’s games this season, when an over has occurred in the previous game, the next game has gone under in four of five instances.
- The Elks are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
- The Elks are 3-3 SU and ATS at home this season, including 2-3 SU and ATS as an underdog.
- Edmonton is 4-9 SU and 7-6 ATS overall as an underdog this season.
- The Elks are 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog, with covers in three straight.
- The under is 9-1 in Edmonton’s last 10 games.
- The under is 4-2 in the Elks’ home games this season, with hits in four straight.
Roughriders vs. Elks Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Roughriders to win
In Week 8, Edmonton played Saskatchewan closer than any other losing team has against the Roughriders this season in a 21-18 loss.
Merely replicating that will not be enough today if the Elks want their playoff hopes to have some actual life after today. If the result of Tiger-Cats vs. Blue Bombers goes Hamilton’s way and Edmonton can come through with the upset, the Elks will be within two points of the Blue Bombers for the crossover spot with three games remaining.
Don’t count them out. They very nearly upset Hamilton on the road last Saturday, and they should have beaten Toronto at BMO Field the Saturday prior. Also, in their most recent home game, the Elks upset the Calgary Stampeders 31-19 with one of their best all-around performances of the season.
So, it certainly can happen. And the Roughriders’ humbling at the hands of the Alouettes has shown that they are certainly mortal. Also, of Saskatchewan’s 10 wins this season, seven have been by no more than eight points.
That said, I fully expect a victory for the visitors here. They let the Elks back in the game in the fourth quarter last time and will not want a repeat of that on the road. It could be close for some time, but I think the Riders will get it done without any late drama.
Roughriders vs. Elks Picks
1) Roughriders/Elks First Quarter Under 10.5 (-150 at Bovada)
This is an atypical choice, both because it is an under and because it is an under with a lot of juice.
But it is worth a look because of how likely it is to hit. Only three times in Saskatchewan’s games this season have there been 11+ points in the first quarter. One was last week against the Alouettes (10-3 Montreal), another was Week 7 at BC (17-8 Saskatchewan), and the other was Week 3 at Toronto (14-7 Saskatchewan).
If this does hit, it opens the opportunity to get a good number on the over live and potentially hit both a pre-game under and a live over.
2) Justin Rankin Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
After running for 204 yards against Calgary in Week 14, Rankin has had a couple of quiet weeks on the ground, running for 27 yards on 12 carries at Toronto and 41 yards on 10 carries at Hamilton.
But he should have a more productive performance today, which could help the Elks stay in the game vs. the Roughriders. All of his best games have been at home. He has exceeded this number five times this season, and all five have been at home.
- Rankin at home (five games): 68 carries, 550 yards, 8.1 yards per carry, 5 TD
- Rankin on the road (nine games): 71 carries, 206 yards, 2.9 yards per carry, TD
Saskatchewan is third in the CFL in yards allowed per carry (4.8), but if Rankin gets 10+ carries for the sixth time in seven home games and the seventh straight game overall, this should hit if he continues to deliver at home.
Rankin is also worth a look for 2+ touchdowns (+400 at Lucky Rebel). He had two touchdowns against the Stampeders in his most recent home game, and he has three two-touchdown games this season, all at home: Week 5 vs. the Redblacks, Week 9 vs. the Tiger-Cats, and Week 15 vs. the Stampeders.
Because Rankin (57 catches, 618 yards, 4 TD) is such a threat both on the ground and through the air, those +400 odds offer great value.
3) Roughriders/Elks Under 54.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
Roughriders vs. Elks is indeed a matchup between the West Division’s top and bottom teams, and recency might also be a factor. The Riders have given up 30+ points in three of their last four games, and the Elks have allowed 28+ points in three of their last four games.
But given the overall numbers, the total should be closer to 50 than 55. That makes the under the best play on the board for this game and perhaps across today’s two-game slate.
If the first quarter goes under but a spurt occurs in the second quarter to send the first half total over, keep an eye on the total for the second half and the live total for the game. I don’t see 55+ points happening, even if Saskatchewan covers.
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