In the CFL regular season, Montreal Alouettes quarterback Davis Alexander did not face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in either matchup between the East Division rivals. But he is available for the most meaningful Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats matchup of the season, an East Final showdown set for this afternoon at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton (3:00 p.m. ET, CFL+).
Due to a lingering hamstring injury, Alexander missed both the Week 4 matchup in Hamilton and the Week 14 matchup in Montreal. The Tiger-Cats (11-7) won both games, which proved to be decisive as they edged the Alouettes (10-8) to win their first East Division title since 2021.
As a result, the Ticats were able to put their feet up last weekend and watch two exciting playoff games while looking forward to hosting the East Final.
The Alouettes, meanwhile, were a part of one of those exciting playoff games, as they fended off a furious comeback by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in a 42-33 shootout at Molson Stadium.
The victory saw Alexander move to 12-0 as a starter in his CFL career, and a 13th consecutive win would see Montreal reach the Grey Cup for the first time since 2022.
But if the East Division champs can secure the sweep of this season’s Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats series, they will return to the Grey Cup for the first time since 2021.
Who will punch the first ticket to next weekend’s championship clash in Winnipeg? Read on for our Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats prediction and picks, and get the best betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Montreal Alouettes vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Alouettes | -3.5 (+100) | -160 | Over 54 (-110) |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | +3.5 (-120) | +140 | Under 54 (-110) |
Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Tiger-Cats to win
Against Winnipeg in the East Semi-Final, Montreal jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and led 25-6 at halftime.
But the first five possessions of the third quarter saw the Blue Bombers score three touchdowns and force two turnovers, and it was suddenly 27-25 Winnipeg just six minutes into the second half.
But the Alouettes retook the lead with a touchdown on their next possession and would not relinquish it, though the Blue Bombers had their chances to alter the eventual outcome.
That Montreal nearly let that game get away is certainly something to be concerned about ahead of today’s Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats matchup, but there are mostly positives to take from the victory.
One, they had a prolific day both through the air (384 yards for Alexander, who completed 24 of 34 passes) and on the ground (more than 170 rushing yards and four touchdowns, with Stevie Scott III racking up 133 yards and two scores on 18 carries).
Two, Alexander remains perfect as a starter, and he did it against a team that has exceptional experience in the postseason.
But can they do it again on the road after rising to the occasion at home last week?
The Ticats were only 5-4 at home in the regular season, and they were just 4-6 against teams who made the playoffs.
Three of those wins were when the opposition was missing its starting quarterback, the two wins over the Alouettes and a Week 15 over the Blue Bombers when Zach Collaros was sidelined due to injury.
That doesn’t mean that these are mere paper Tiger(-Cats), but it does make you wonder if they can deliver today. With the steady hand of Bo Levi Mitchell leading the way, I believe that they can.
Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats Picks
1) Tiger-Cats ML (+150 at Everygame)
In his 13th CFL season, Bo Levi Mitchell had one of his best seasons, throwing for 5,296 yards and a career-best 36 touchdowns (with 11 interceptions) while completing 68.4% of his passes.
But it hasn’t just been the Bo Levi Show for Hamilton. Kenny Lawler, Kiondre Smith, and Tim White each had 80+ catches and more than 1,000 receiving yards. Running back Greg Bell tallied more than 1,500 total yards (1,084 rushing and 426 receiving). Also, the Ticats led the CFL in interceptions, turnover margin, and points off turnovers.
So, they didn’t win the East Division just because Alexander wasn’t available for the two Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats head-to-head matchups and more than half of the regular season in total. This team is very, very good and has shown it on numerous occasions.
Additionally, Hamilton had seven games decided by five or fewer points in the regular season, and they came out on top four times. If they find themselves in a close contest in the late stages, that experience will be valuable.
Montreal’s record with Alexander is not to be overlooked, but it must end at some point, and a matchup with an offense that features one of the CFL’s best all-time quarterbacks, one of this season’s top running backs, and a trio of 1,000-yard receivers and a defense that has a real taste for takeaways is a prime spot for that end to come.
2) Greg Bell Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at Bovada)
It was a tale of two seasons for Bell. In his first eight games, he averaged just 45.4 rushing yards per game and tallied 62 or more yards just once, a 65-yard effort against the BC Lions in Week 10.
But in his last seven games, Bell averaged 96.4 yards per game and tallied 62 or more yards six times. He went over the 100-yard mark twice, including a season-high 156 yards in a 26-9 win at Montreal in Week 14.
The Alouettes held Winnipeg’s Brady Oliveira to just 38 yards on eight carries in the East Semi-Final, but unlike that matchup, they likely will have to contend with the run more vs. the Tiger-Cats.
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