It was anything but easy, but the Montreal Alouettes have successfully weathered the absence of Davis Alexander. Tonight, Montreal’s star quarterback finally returns to the field for the Alouettes vs. the visiting Calgary Stampeders (7:30 p.m. ET, CFL+).
A nagging hamstring injury has limited Alexander to just four starts this season, and he has not played since Week 7.
With him on the six-game injured list, the Alouettes went on a tailspin. After sitting at 5-2 after Week 8, Montreal dropped five straight games with substitute starters McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Caleb Evans, and James Morgan.
But Bethel-Thompson returned two weeks ago and steered Montreal back to .500 with road wins over the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Toronto Argonauts, and with Alexander now back, a playoff berth is within reach.
Tonight, the Alouettes (7-7) will look to inch even closer to the postseason with a victory vs. the Stampeders (8-5), who are looking to avoid a three-game losing streak following consecutive losses to the Edmonton Elks and BC Lions.
Against the Lions at home last Friday, Calgary fell behind 21-0 within the first 11 minutes and it never improved from there as they were routed 52-23. Starting quarterback Vernon Adams Jr., making his first start against the Lions after last year’s trade, struggled before exiting in the third quarter after taking an accidental knee to the head.
Adams will start tonight in Montreal, where he began his CFL career in 2016 and made 29 starts across two stints and six seasons before a trade to BC in 2022.
Will he and Calgary fare better in this matchup than he did in last week’s dud against a former team? Read on for our Stampeders vs. Alouettes prediction and picks, and get the best value betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Calgary Stampeders vs. Montreal Alouettes Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary Stampeders | +4.5 (-105) | +200 | Over 50.5 (-110) |
| Montreal Alouettes | -4.5 (-115) | -240 | Under 50.5 (-110) |
Stampeders vs. Alouettes Betting Trends
- The Stampeders are 6-1 SU and ATS as an underdog this season, including 3-1 SU and ATS as a road underdog.
- In Calgary’s road games this season, the under is 4-1.
- The under is 4-3 when the Stampeders have been an underdog this season.
- The Alouettes are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in games started by Davis Alexander this season.
- Montreal is 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS as a favorite this season, with all of Alexander’s starts in those eight games.
- The over is 2-1-1 in games started by Alexander this season.
Stampeders vs. Alouettes Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Alouettes to win
Tonight will be Alexander’s ninth CFL start, and if it goes like the first seven, it will be a good night for the home team.
That is because he has yet to lose as a starter in the CFL.
This season, Alexander led the Alouettes to wins in Weeks 1, 2, 3, and 7 before his extended spell on the sidelines. Without him, Montreal scored an upset win in Calgary in Week 8—with a comeback spurred by Adams’ exit early late in the third quarter—but did not win again until a stunning 48-31 win at Saskatchewan in Week 15.
That Alexander is making his return vs. the Stampeders with the Alouettes already on the rise can only be positive.
For weeks, Montreal has remained one of the Grey Cup favorites on potential and not production. There may be some rust to shake off for Alexander, but we should see why they could end up playing for a championship at Princess Auto Stadium come November, even if they cannot overhaul the 9-5 Hamilton Tiger-Cats for the East Division title.
It won’t take much for Calgary to be better than last week, but it feels like the Stampeders are in a funky period. Are they coming down to earth after exceeding expectations all season?
The Stampeders have a talented offense, but it has not shown enough explosiveness to leave them with significant margin for error if the defense struggles. Adams has just one touchdown pass in his last three games, and he is averaging just 7.7 yards per attempt in that stretch.
Both the offense and defense should not be as much of a disaster as they were against the Lions, but it’s hard to see the Stampeders coming away with the win vs. the Alouettes.
Stampeders vs. Alouettes Picks
1) Stampeders/Alouettes First Half Over 24.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
In the first matchup vs. the Stampeders, the Alouettes led 14-13 at halftime, and that was with Bethel-Thompson at quarterback.
Both teams have talented defenses, but I do see some early points in this one. This number has hit in eight of Calgary’s 13 games this season, though only two of those have come in their five games.
2) Dedrick Mills Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Bovada)
In the Week 8 loss to the Alouettes, Mills had 78 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries.
Mills has had 75 or more rushing yards eight times this season, and in two of the five he fell short, he had 70 and 72 yards.
Montreal is first in the CFL in yards allowed per play (6.36) but seventh in the league in yards allowed per rush (5.2). If Mills, who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, gets 14+ carries as he has nine times this season, I like the odds of this one hitting.
I would love it if his total were a shade lower vs. the Alouettes because the Stampeders are on the road, where he has gone over 74.5 just once in five games. But he has gone under 75 yards in three consecutive games just once across the last two seasons, so look for him to get there after recording 38 yards on eight carries at Edmonton and 72 on 15 carries against BC.
3) Alouettes Team Total Over 27.5 Points (-114 at Lucky Rebel)
In Alexander’s CFL starts, the Alouettes have scored 33, 33, 27, 19, 28, 39, 38, and 26 points, for an average of 30.4 points per game.
After allowing 31 points in each of their last two road games, look for the Stampeders to be similarly generous vs. the Alouettes tonight.
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