After winning three straight games to put themselves on the precipice of the CFL playoff picture, the Edmonton Elks saw their forward momentum come to a halt on Monday in Calgary. Five days after that 21-point loss at McMahon Stadium, the Elks will look to reverse that result vs. the Stampeders at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton (7:00 p.m. ET, CFL+).
With consecutive victories over the Montreal Alouettes, Toronto Argonauts, and Ottawa Redblacks, the Elks (4-7) put an ugly 1-6 start behind them and set themselves up for some meaningful matchups in September and October.
Monday’s 28-7 loss to the Stampeders (8-3) doesn’t really derail that, but it does lessen an already meager margin of error.
For Calgary, every win helps pile the pressure on the Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-2) in the West Division and further cements their status as one of the Grey Cup favorites. They head into their first road game in more than a month with a three-game win streak, and a fourth straight win could see them move level with the Roughriders—and with the head-to-head tiebreaker already in hand due to a season sweep—if Saskatchewan loses at Winnipeg today.
Can Edmonton cool off Calgary and pick up a huge home win this evening? Read on for our Stampeders vs. Elks prediction and expert picks and get the best betting value for our best bets from BetOnline and other top U.S. sportsbooks.
Calgary Stampeders vs. Edmonton Elks Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary Stampeders | -6.5 (-118) | -310 | Over 50 (+100) |
| Edmonton Elks | +6.5 (-102) | +262 | Under 50 (-120) |
Stampeders vs. Elks Betting Trends
- The Stampeders are 7-4 against the spread this season, including 3-1 ATS on the road.
- Calgary is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season, with all four of those games at home.
- The under is 4-1 in the Stampeders’ last five games and 3-1 in their road games this season.
- Edmonton is 2-3 SU and ATS at home this season.
- The under has hit in each of the Elks’ last five games and is 8-3 overall in Edmonton’s games this season, including 3-2 in their home games.
Stampeders vs. Elks Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Stampeders to win
In Monday’s matchup at McMahon Stadium, Edmonton outgained Calgary 328 to 287, but the Elks fumbled the ball away deep in Stampeders territory twice, had a short field goal miss, and allowed a punt return touchdown.
So, even though Calgary came away with a 28-7 win, it wasn’t a blowout by any means, even if Edmonton did go two-and-out on five possessions, including three consecutive in the third quarter when they were still within striking distance.
That means that if Edmonton can play a cleaner game this evening, the Stampeders vs. Elks rematch could be a much closer game on the scoreboard.
However, the Stampeders have done a great job this season of making big plays in all facets of the game when they needed to, and while the Elks have shown their mettle with a couple of fourth-quarter comebacks since Cody Fajardo took the reins at QB, this one looks like a win for a confident Calgary club.
Stampeders vs. Elks Picks
1) Stampeders/Elks under 50 (-120 at BetOnline)
Even if the Elks can have more success making a dent in the scoreboard than they did on Monday, the under is the likeliest outcome.
In the Stampeders’ 11 games this season, 50 or fewer points have been scored seven times, including four of their last five overall and three of their four road games.
And in the Elks’ 11 games this season, 50 or fewer points have been scored six times, including five of six since Cody Fajardo took over as starting quarterback. In that stretch, the Elks have been better offensively than they were with Tre Ford, but they have also been stingier on the scoreboard, allowing an average of 23.1 PPG after allowing an average of 34.0 PPG in their first five games, a stretch in which they allowed 31 or more points in every game.
2) Dedrick Mills Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
In Monday’s win over the Elks, Mills recorded his second 100-yard game of the season, tallying a season-high 106 yards on 17 carries.
Mills entered this week as the CFL’s second leading rusher (behind BC’s James Butler, who took his season total to 945 yards with 77 in last night’s game at Ottawa) with 844 yards, and he has racked up those yards by being consistent. While he has only two 100-yard games, he hit the 90-yard mark in three other games and has run for at least 70 yards in all but two games.
The Elks enter the rematch vs. the Stampeders allowing an average of 4.7 yards per rush, which was third in the CFL entering Week 14. But if Mills gets the opportunities he has had recently (18 carries vs. Winnipeg in Week 10, 16 carries vs. Saskatchewan in Week 12, and 17 carries vs. the Elks in Week 13), he should hit this number with a bit to spare.
3) Stampeders Team Total Under 28.5 (-120 at Bovada)
Recent trends heavily favor the under for Calgary’s team total. The Stampeders have scored 28 or fewer points in four of their last five games and six of 11 games this season, and the Elks have not allowed more than 28 points in any of their last six games.
The Stampeders should win, and they could very well win by a couple of scores. But while they have a very, very good offense and have seven double-digit wins this season, they aren’t winning games by overpowering teams offensively like some other teams in the CFL might. That isn’t to say that they aren’t capable, because they are with the players they have on offense, but a 30 or 40-point performance isn’t a likely occurrence here.
Other CFL Betting Information
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