Last week, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers defeated the Montreal Alouettes at home in a matchup that ultimately meant nothing for either team. This week, the two teams meet again, this time at Molson Stadium in Montreal. And the stakes for tomorrow’s Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes matchup (2:00 p.m. ET, CFL+) are much higher, as a place in next week’s East Final will be at stake.
The Blue Bombers (10-8) won four of their last five games, but it was not enough to keep them out of the crossover spot, as the BC Lions and Calgary Stampeders both finished 11-7.
That sets up a trip to Montreal, where they won 26-13 in Week 12. That Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes contest came when Montreal was mired in a five-game losing streak without star quarterback Davis Alexander and used three different starting quarterbacks (McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Caleb Evans, and James Morgan).
That stretch torpedoed the team’s hopes of winning the East Division, which the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (11-7) topped for the first time since 2021.
But prior to last week’s loss at Princess Auto Stadium, the Alouettes had won five straight games, four of them since Alexander’s return from a hamstring injury that limited him to seven starts.
All seven of those starts were victories, which means that Alexander is now 11-0 as a starter in his CFL career.
Against Winnipeg, he will make his first postseason start. Maintaining that unblemished mark will book a ticket to the East Final at Hamilton, who Alexander did not face in the regular season due to his two spells on the sidelines.
Who will move on in Montreal? Read on for our Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes prediction and picks, as well as the best odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Montreal Alouettes Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | +6 (+100) | +226 | Over 49.5 (-110) |
| Montreal Alouettes | -6 (-120) | -275 | Under 49.5 (-110) |
Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Alouettes to win
In many of their games without Alexander, the Alouettes looked like one of the worst teams in the CFL.
But with Alexander, they have looked arguably like the best team in the league.
Surface statistics don’t always tell the story, but they certainly do in this case.
In the 11 games that Alexander did not start, Montreal went 3-8 and scored more than 23 points just once, a still-stunning 48-31 road win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Week 15. Six times, they were held to fewer than 20 points, including both games against Winnipeg.
In the seven games Alexander started, the Alouettes scored no fewer than 26 points and hit the 30-point mark five times.
So, with the 27-year-old now fit and firing, there’s every reason to feel confident that this week’s Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes matchup will not go anything like the previous two.
That is even though Winnipeg did finish the regular season positively. Their season mirrored Montreal’s in beginning well (a 3-0 start), hitting an extended skid (seven losses in 10 games), and finishing strong (four wins in five games).
An injury-hit season for quarterback Zach Collaros did play a role. But despite completing a career-best 72.6% of his passes, he wasn’t at his best in many games either. Collaros set a new career high with 16 interceptions and was picked off multiple times in a game seven times.
But he and the Blue Bombers carry a wealth of postseason experience with them into this matchup vs. the Alouettes, as they seek a sixth consecutive Grey Cup appearance.
That experience is not to be overlooked. Psychologically, this team will not be shaken by the stakes and the atmosphere.
That said, this Montreal’s success with Alexander is also not to be overlooked.
Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes Picks
1) Zach Collaros Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-130 at Bovada)
This goes against a lot of my principles, but it makes too much sense to pass it up.
This will be Collaros’s 15th CFL postseason start. Only twice has he thrown multiple touchdown passes, a two-touchdown game in the 2021 Grey Cup win over the Tiger-Cats and a four-touchdown performance in last year’s West Final win over the Roughriders.
Also, in 13 regular season starts this season, Collaros threw multiple touchdown passes just three times, and two of those were in his first two starts of the season. Not finishing multiple games due to injury contributed to this stat, but he still didn’t do it in most of the games he did finish.
2) Ontaria “Pokey” Wilson Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
After returning to Winnipeg in September, Wilson picked up where he left off last season. In his six games, he went over 53.5 yards four times, with a high of 97 yards against the Ticats in Week 17.
3) Montreal Alouettes Team Total Over 27.5 Points (-125 at Bovada)
To pay my penance for taking one under, I am taking a second over.
The Blue Bombers allowed 28+ points seven times in the regular season, six of them in their eight losses.
The Alouettes, meanwhile, scored 28+ points six times in Alexander’s seven starts, including 38, 30, and 39 in the three since his return.
Other CFL Betting Information
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