With six weeks remaining in the CFL regular season, the BC Lions appeared poised for the playoffs, partly thanks to a favorable three-game homestand ahead after this week. This week, however, brings one of their toughest remaining games, as they visit the Calgary Stampeders in the second game of Friday’s CFL doubleheader. The Lions vs. Stampeders matchup is set for 9:30 p.m. ET, and U.S. viewers can tune in for free on CFL+.
The Lions (6-7) secured a split of their back-to-back with the Ottawa Redblacks with a 38-27 win at BC Place last Friday. With the Winnipeg Blue Bombers losing at Hamilton, the Lions are mathematically tied for third in the West Division.
Still, the Lions enter this week’s matchup vs. the Stampeders on the right side of the playoff cutline, as they would be the crossover team in the East Division as it stands.
They can’t bank on remaining there with the Toronto Argonauts (5-8) heating up, but the upcoming schedule could see the Lions all but clinch a playoff spot.
The Stampeders (8-4), meanwhile, have their sights on a division title, which remains very much in play. They went down 31-19 at Edmonton last time out in Week 14, but with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-3) surprisingly falling at home to the Montreal Alouettes last Saturday, a victory for Calgary could tighten the West race with the Roughriders off this week.
Will Calgary, led by former Lions QB Vernon Adams Jr., pick up a fourth straight home win? Read on for our Lions vs. Stampeders prediction and picks. Also, get the best value odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline, as we do the line shopping to save you time for more research and more bets.
BC Lions vs. Calgary Stampeders Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC Lions | +5.5 (-120) | +189 | Over 55.5 (-110) |
| Calgary Stampeders | -5.5 (+100) | -225 | Under 55.5 (-110) |
Lions vs. Stampeders Betting Trends
- The Lions are 3-4 SU and ATS on the road this season.
- BC is 2-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season, but they have won their last two games as an underdog.
- The over has hit in the Lions’ last seven games.
- The over is 5-2 in BC’s road games this season, with hits in each of the last three.
- Calgary is 7-5 against the spread this season, including 3-2 ATS on the road.
- Calgary is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season, with four of those five games at home.
- The under is 5-1 in the Stampeders’ last five overall game.
- The under is 4-3 in Calgary’s seven home games this season but has hit in three of the last four.
Lions vs. Stampeders Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Stampeders to win
The Lions certainly have the offense to hang with and even beat the Stampeders, but their defense will likely be their undoing.
After letting a win slip at Ottawa in Week 14, the Lions hosted the Redblacks last week. They had 38 points on the board less than halfway in the third quarter, and that’s where they finished. Fortunately, they were too far ahead for that to matter, as they coasted and covered in a 38-27 victory.
The Lions have arguably the CFL’s best offense, but their defense is one of the league’s worst. It is especially bad against the pass, even if they rank second in passing yards allowed per game.
Surface stats like that do hold relevance often enough, but they don’t here. No team has given more 30+ yard completions than the Lions (26). BC is also seventh in the league in completion percentage against, eighth in opponent pass efficiency, second in yards allowed after the catch, and tied for second-worst in the league in touchdown passes allowed.
Also, the Lions enter their matchup vs. the Stampeders tied for worst in the league in offensive points allowed per game and eighth in second-down conversion percentage allowed, opponent touchdown drive percentage, and average yards allowed on first down.
Calgary’s defense has won more games than its offense, but this is an opportunity for Vernon Adams Jr., Dedrick Mills, and a talent-laden pass-catching group to flex against a unit that has given up a lot of big plays.
After a rough game in a loss at Edmonton in Week 14, look for Calgary to bounce back at home. Expect the Stampeders to have a prolific offensive performance vs. the Lions, which should translate into a comfortable home win.
Lions vs. Stampeders Picks
1) Jalen Philpot Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
Philpot had just one catch for three yards in Week 14, as the Elks put in an impressive defensive performance. But look for him to be much more involved for the Stampeders vs. the Lions this week.
Will he put up numbers like twin brother Tyson did for the Montreal Alouettes at Saskatchewan last Saturday? That isn’t impossible, but nine catches, 238 yards, and two touchdowns will be tough to replicate.
That said, do not be surprised if he at least hits the 100-yard mark for the second time this season. The other time was in Week 2 vs. the Toronto Argonauts, who also have a proclivity for giving up big plays throughout the air.
2) Stampeders Team Total Over 30.5 Points (-110 at Bovada)
While the under has been more prevalent in Calgary’s games this season, the over on Calgary’s team total is an easy choice here.
The Lions have given up an average of 32.7 PPG on the road this season. They have allowed 31+ points five times in seven road games, including 38 (at Hamilton), 52 (at Toronto), and 34 (at Ottawa) in their last three.
The Stampeders haven’t ridden the offense to a lot of routs this season, but falling short of this total vs. the Lions would need to be considered a disappointment.
3) Vernon Adams Jr. Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-120 at Bovada)
The revenge angle is not always one to target, whatever the sport may be. Adams’ first game against his former team is a prime spot to do so, however.
After being acquired from Montreal during the 2022 season, Adams went 22-12 as a starter for BC. And after leading them to the West Final in 2023, he signed a three-year contract extension in February 2024.
However, the Lions re-signed Nathan Rourke, the team’s starter for most of the 2022 season, in August of last year after his NFL adventures ended. In the process, they made him the CFL’s highest-paid player.
Rourke was immediately inserted as the starter but went just 3-5 in eight starts before Adams returned as the starter for the regular season finale and a playoff loss to the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
Even with the success that Adams had in Vancouver, the franchise ultimately decided to move forward with Rourke. As a result, Adams was traded to the Stampeders after the season ended last November.
These things do not always go mutually well for all sides but have thus far in this situation. BC should have another win or two, but Rourke has had a big year. Adams has been key to the Stampeders’ turnaround following consecutive losing seasons.
Still, there might be some extra motivation for No. 3 to be his best in this Lions vs. Stampeders matchup, especially after completing a season-low 51.7% (15 of 29) of his passes at Edmonton in Week 14. Look for him to make the most of a matchup with a poor pass defense and show out against his former team.
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